FSU vs. Louisville Predictions, Odds

  • January 18, 2021
  • By David Schwab
  • VegasInsider.com

Monday night’s college basketball betting board features an ACC matchup between the Florida State Seminoles and the No. 16 Louisville Cardinals. Game time from KFC Yum! Center is 7 p.m. with ESPN carrying the national broadcast.



FSU-Louisville Betting Odds

  • Spread: Louisville -1.5
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 141

Odds Subject to Change

Louisville gets the nod from the oddsmakers as a slight -1.5-point home favorite. The betting line for the total has been set at 141 points.

With Saturday’s seven-point win at home against North Carolina, the Seminoles improved to 7-2 SU on the year. They covered as four-point favorites to move to 5-4 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in their last three games.

Florida State is 4-1 both SU and ATS in its last five games against Louisville. The total has gone OVER in the last four meetings. The Seminoles are 2-1 (SU and ATS) in their last three road games in this ACC matchup.

Louisville is coming off a six-point loss to Miami as a 4 ½-point road favorite. This snapped a SU five-game winning streak. It is 9-2 SU and 5-6 ATS through 11 games. The total has gone OVER in the last three outings.

The Cardinals have won their last 14 home games SU. Yet, they have failed to cover in four of their last five games at home. The total has gone OVER in three of those five contests.


Betting Analysis – FSU Seminoles

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-2
  • ATS: 5-4
  • SU - Home: 7-1
  • SU - Away: 0-1
  • O/U: 5-3-1

MJ Walker and Raiquan Gray combined for 39 of Florida State’s 82 points in the win over North Carolina.

Walker remains the team’s leading scorer this season with 16.3 points per game. The senior guard is shooting 46% from the field and matching that percentage from three-point range (45.7%).

Guards’ Scottie Barnes (11.1 points) and Anthony Polite (9.6 points) are also helping the Seminoles average 79.1 points a game. Polite has converted on 53.3 percent of his three-point attempts. Barnes leads in assists (4.1) but he remains questionable for Monday with an ankle injury.

As a team, Florida State is shooting 46.8% from the floor and 38.2% beyond the three-point line. It is pulling down 35.9 rebounds a game while allowing an average of 69.7 PPG.

Betting Analysis – Louisville Cardinals

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-2
  • ATS: 5-5-1
  • SU - Home: 6-0
  • SU - Away: 3-2
  • O/U: 6-5

The Cardinals should drop a bit in the national rankings with Saturday’s loss as favorites. They trailed by 11 points at the half and could not rally enough to close the gap.

Carlik Jones scored a team-high 25 points in that loss while going 11-for-20 from the field. The senior guard leads the Cardinals in scoring this season with 18 PPG. He is shooting 43.5% from the field and 36.7% from three-point range.

Guard David Johnson is next in scoring with 12.9 PPG and forward Jae’Lyn Withers (10.2 points) leads the team in rebounds with 7.2 a game. Louisville is averaging 71.2 points and pulling down 37.1 rebounds. The team is connecting on 47.3% of its shots from the field and 33 percent from outside the three-point line.

Defensively, the Cardinals have a points-allowed average of 64.4.

Inside the Stats – FSU Seminoles

  • PS/G: 79.1 (64th)
  • PA/G: 69.7 (161st)
  • Off Rtg: 111.6 (42nd)
  • Def Rtg: 98.3 (179th)

Inside the Stats – Louisville Cardinals

  • PS/G: 71.2 (204th)
  • PA/G: 64.4 (52nd)
  • Off Rtg: 106.8 (100th)
  • Def Rtg: 96.6 (145th)

Key Players to Watch

  • FSU - M.J. Walker (16.3 PPG)
  • FSU - Scottie Barnes (11.1 PPG, 4.1 APG)
  • LOU - Carlik Jones (18 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.9 APG)
  • LOU - David Johnson (12.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.1 APG)

FSU-Louisville Predictions

Florida State has the clear edge in this series over the past few seasons but Louisville has proven itself to be a tough out at home. This sets the stage for tight matchup on Monday night.

Coming off the loss to Miami on the road, I give the slight edge to the Cardinals at home. You should be able to get a good price on a moneyline bet as an alternative to betting the spread.

I'd also go with the OVER on the total line. Each of these teams have been outscoring the projections in recent games. This should continue when pitted against one another.

  • Score Prediction: Louisville 77 FSU 75
  • Best Bets: Louisville -1.5
  • Best Bets: OVER

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