Missouri vs. Oklahoma Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 20, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Missouri vs. Oklahoma Predictions

The Missouri Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners square off in an old rivalry game in the first round of the West Region at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis at 7:25 p.m. ET on TNT.

These former Big 12 combatants will face each other in Indianapolis, and the fan bases of both sides will be glad to see each other again, but not for old times sake. They're happy to see their school facing another team which isn't playing very well.

Missouri has alternated wins and losses across the past seven, and they're just 3-6 SU/2-7 ATS over the previous nine outings. They did score an uninspiring 73-70 against Georgia in their first game of the SEC Tournament, before being bounced by Arkansas, 70-64. The didn't cover either outing as the UNDER hit in each.

Oklahoma has also been on uneven footing lately, and both of these teams were probably holding their collective breaths on Selection Sunday before their names were called. The Sooners barely scraped by a bad Iowa State side in the first game of the Big 12 tourney before being dispatched home by Kansas, 69-62. That win over the Cyclones was the only victory in the past six for the Sooners, and they have failed to cover in seven straight.

There isn't a whole lot to feel excited about backing either of these teams, but Mizzou is playing a touch better, and at least they have hit the number in the past month. A small-unit wager on the Tigers is warranted, but whomever advances is going to get curb-stomped by Gonzaga in Round 2.

• Score Prediction: Missouri 68 Oklahoma 66
• Best Bets - Side: Missouri +2
• Best Bets - Total: UNDER 140

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Missouri vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Oklahoma -2
• Total: 140
• Money-Line: Oklahoma -130 Missouri +110

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Missouri 66/1
• Oklahoma 35/1

Odds to Win West Regional

• Missouri 25/1
• Oklahoma 9/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Early Action - Mar. 20 5 vs. 12 4 vs. 13 3 vs. 14 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 5 vs. 12 2 vs. 15 6 vs. 10

Handicapping Missouri vs. Oklahoma

The Tigers haven't won consecutive games since winning three in a row from Jan. 30 to Feb. 6, going 2-1 ATS in three outings when they topped TCU, Kentucky and Alabama. The 68-65 victory as three-point underdogs on Feb. 6 as the UNDER (152) cashed was their signature victory of the season. Mizzou hasn't covered since a minor upset as four-point underdogs at Florida on March 3, 72-70.

The Sooners last covered on Feb. 13, or more than a calendar month, when they won 91-90 in overtime at West Virginia as 3.5-point underdogs. Since then Oklahoma has gone 0-7 ATS, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite. They're hoping a familiar face from the past will be enough to snap them back into form.

There isn't really a lot to feel good about for either of these sides. Oklahoma was so-so on offense with 75.1 PPG, and they're not a very good shooting team. They hit just 33.3% of its three-pointers, ranking 199th in the country. They're 74.2% at the free-throw stripe, good for 64th, so they have that going for them. However, defensively the Sooners are a train wreck along the perimeter, allowing opponents to hit 35.7% from behind the three-point line, while yielding 69.1 PPG.

Mizzou is also very average, going for 74.1 PPG, ranking 109th in scoring offense, while hitting a dismal 31.9% from long distance to rank 266th overall. They also a bad free-throw shooting team, connecting a 69.7% clip in the regular season, good for 213th. Defensively, they allow 72.1 PPG, good for 227th in the nation. At least they give somewhat better of an effort defending the three, as foes hit 32.2% to rank 92nd.

• Region: West
• Matchup: 8 vs. 9
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 20, 2021
• TV-Time: TNT - 7:25 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Missouri Tigers

Mizzou basketball has had its moments this season, and they have not yet reached double digits for losses which is a good thing. That happens next whenever they get bounced from the NCAA Tournament. This team has beaten Big Dance participants Oral Roberts, Oregon, Wichita State, Liberty, Illinois, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Florida. That resume, albeit with many of the successes from early in the season, has to have Oklahoma worried.

The Tigers wrapped up the regular season 2-5 SU/ATS in the final seven, and split 1-1 SU while going 0-2 ATS with two UNDER results in the SEC Tournament, but they are capable of beating some of the best teams in the nation. They are also 2-1 SU/ATS on a neutral floor this season, too, including the 83-75 win over Oregon back on Dec. 2 in Omaha.

Still, the Tigers are 2-5 ATS in the past seven neutral-site outings, and they're 1-7 ATS in the past eight tries against winning teams. And for historical purposes, they're 0-5 ATS in the past five NCAA Tournament games, but Cuonzo Martin's bunch hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 2018, his first year at the helm.

The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the past five overall for Mizzou, while going 6-2 in the past eight games against teams with a winning straight-up record. The OVER is 14-3 in their past 17 NCAA Tournament games, although, again, their last appearance was 2018, so that's rather meaningless for the current assortment of kids on Martin's roster.

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Seed: 9
Conference: SEC
Bid: At-large

• SU: 16-9
• ATS: 12-13
• O/U: 13-10-2

• Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 1-3-1 O/U
• Notable Wins: Oregon, Wichita State, Illinois, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida

• PS/G: 73.6 (113th)
• PA/G: 71.9 (221st)
• Off Rtg: 103.4 (146th)
• Def Rtg: 101 (194th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Oklahoma Sooners

At one point Oklahoma was looking like a team which could make a lot of noise in the Big 12. They opened the season 5-1 SU, but they didn't really beat anyone of note outside of a 79-65 win over NCAA Tournament team Oral Roberts on Dec. 16. They did sweep a good West Virginia side, they topped Alabama in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, and they split with Kansas and Texas. Their biggest nemesis was Oklahoma State, falling in a pair of crucial late-season meetings which likely had them tumble to the eight line as a result.

The Sooners tasted victory against cellar-dweller Iowa State in the opening game of the Big 12 tournament, but that's the only win for Oklahoma across its past six games, while failing to cover seven in a row. It's hard to just flick the switch on and begin to play well again, but at least Mizzou isn't playing very well, either.

Oklahoma is favored by a bucket, but that's not a good thing for them. The Sooners have covered just eight of the past 28 as a favorite, and they're 0-6 ATS following a non-cover, and 0-5 ATS in the next five after a straight-up loss. They're also 0-4 ATS in the past four against winning teams.

As far as the totals are concerned, the OVER is 4-1 in their past five after a straight up loss, although the UNDER is 6-2 in the previous eight against teams with an overall winning record. For what it's worth, the OVER is 9-3 in their past 12 as a favorite at the NCAA Tournament, too.

Seed: 8
Conference: Big 12
Bid: At-large

• SU: 15-10
• ATS: 12-12-1
• O/U: 11-14

• Current Form (Last 5): 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS, 3-2 O/U
• Notable Wins: West Virginia (x2), Kansas, Texas, Alabama

• PS/G: 74.8 (89th)
• PA/G: 69.2 (144th)
• Off Rtg: 106.4 (89th)
• Def Rtg: 98.6 (130th)

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Late Action - Mar. 20 2 vs. 15 7 vs. 10 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 7 vs. 10

Key Players to Watch

The Tigers had four players average 10 or more points per game, so they have plenty of scoring options. Dru Smith led the team with 14.1 PPG during the regular season, edging Xavier Pinson is a spirited battle for the team's scoring title. Both can rebound the ball well, and dish out a handful of assists per game. Smith and Pinson each shot at least 83% from the free-throw line, so either can handle the ball late with the game on the line.

Like Mizzou, Oklahoma had four players with 10 or more points per game, and Austin Reaves and Brady Manek also averaged north of five rebounds per contest in the regular season. Reaves also chipped in with 4.9 APG in 21 regular-season games, while hitting 87.1% from the free-throw stripe, so he'll be the target to have the ball late in close games. Umoja Gibson was the team's best three-point shooter at 43.0% in the regular season.

• MIZZ - Xavier Pinson (14.1 PPG)
• MIZZ - Dru Smith (14.1 PPG)

• OU - Austin Reaves (17.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG)
• OU - De'Vion Harmon (12.9 PPG)

Head-to-Head - Missouri vs. Oklahoma

These teams have a long history against each other, with Oklahoma leading the all-time series 113-97. The Sooners have won 17 of the 31 meetings at a neutral site, too, with Mizzou holding a slight 3-2 edge in the past five meetings. These teams faced each other Nov. 26, 2019 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, and the Sooners came away with the 77-66 win.

March Madness Records & Trends

Missouri Tigers

• All-Time Record: 22-27
• Last Appearance: 2018
• Deepest Run: Elite Eight (2009)

-- Missouri has lost six of its last seven NCAA Tournament games.
-- Missouri has lost its first game in four straight NCAA Tournament appearances, three of the four losses have been by a double-digit point total.
-- Missouri has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last nine games.

Oklahoma Sooners

• All-Time Record: 42-32
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Final Runner-up (1988)

-- Oklahoma has lost three of its last four NCAA Tournament games.
-- Oklahoma has lost its first game in overtime in two of its last five NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Oklahoma has failed to reach the Elite Eight in five of its last six NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in 11 of its last 16 games when playing as the favorite.
-- Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in seven straight games.

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