Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:45 AM

Abilene Christian vs. Texas Predictions, Odds, Preview


Mar. 20, 2021
Jonathan Willis
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Abilene Christian vs. Texas Predictions

Shaka Smart has seemingly been on the hot seat for the last three seasons. However, this is his most successful season yet with the Texas Longhorns.

They won the Big 12 Conference Tournament to earn their lowest seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2008, and Smart is hoping to pick up his first March Madness win since taking over in Austin. The Abilene Christian Wildcats present a tough test, though.

Abilene Christian has a decent chance of pulling off the upset against Texas. The Wildcats were the best team at creating turnovers this season (26.7% turnover rate), and they can use that defense to out-havoc havoc. That will lead to this game going UNDER the total, although Texas is not as strong on the defensive end as we have seen in previous seasons.

  • Score Prediction: Texas 68 Abilene Christian 65
  • Best Bets - Side: Texas -9
  • Best Bets - Total: UNDER 139.5

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Abilene Christian vs. Texas Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Texas -9
  • Total: 139.5
  • Money-Line: Texas -420 Abilene Christian +340

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

Odds to Win East Regional

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Early Action - Mar. 20
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Handicapping Abilene Christian vs. Texas

The Wildcats had little trouble with their non-conference schedule outside of their games against fellow NCAA Tournament teams Texas Tech and Arkansas. Abilene Christian held the Red Raiders to just 51 points in a seven-point loss, but the Wildcats didn’t have the same success against the Razorbacks.

They only dropped two games in Southland Conference play this season. Abilene Christian largely dominated its conference opponents and obliterated Lamar by 22 points and Nicholls State by 34 points to win the conference tournament.

Texas strung together some impressive victories through the first month-plus of the season. The Longhorns beat Davidson, Indiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and West Virginia to start the season 10-1 despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country.

They stumbled in the middle of the season but ended the year with three straight wins. Texas nipped Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals by a single point, and advanced to the championship game after Kansas was forced to bow out due to COVID. The Longhorns went on to beat Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 Championship Game thanks to the day off in between games.

  • Region: East
  • Matchup: 3 vs. 14
  • Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Date: Mar. 20, 2021
  • TV-Time: TruTV - 9:50 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Abilene Christian Wildcats

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Abilene Christian is 7-1 ATS over its last eight games. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in neutral site games this season. The OVER is 11-2 in Abilene Christian’s last 13 games.

Seed: 14
Conference: Southland
Bid: Auto

  • SU: 23-4
  • ATS: 16-6
  • O/U: 14-8
  • Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U
  • Notable Wins: None
  • PS/G: 77.6 (44th)
  • PA/G: 60.5 (7th)
  • Off Rtg: 107 (79th)
  • Def Rtg: 83.5 (1st)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Texas Longhorns

Texas has won and covered five straight games. The Longhorns are 5-0 SU, and 4-1 ATS in neutral site games this season.

Seed: 3
Conference: Big 12
Bid: Auto

  • SU: 19-7
  • ATS: 12-13-1
  • O/U: 16-10
  • Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, 3-2 O/U
  • Notable Wins: UNC, Oklahoma State (x2), Kansas (x2), West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
  • PS/G: 75.2 (80th)
  • PA/G: 68.8 (131st)
  • Off Rtg: 106.5 (87th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.4 (104th)

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Late Action - Mar. 20
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7
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8
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Key Players to Watch

Center Kolton Kohl is the leading scorer on the Wildcats. Kohl is averaging 12.3 PPG, but he is only pulling down 4.8 RPG despite being 7’0. He is making 55.7% of his two-point field goals on the year.

The best three-point shooter on Abilene Christian is Joe Pleasant. Pleasant is averaging 10.8 PPG and 5.4 RPG on the year, and he is knocking down 47.5% of his triples. However, the Wildcats don’t take a lot of threes and instead rotate the ball around to find the open man.

It’s been a tumultuous collegiate career for Andrew Jones. He looked set to become a star as a sophomore but suffered a season-ending injury and a month later discovered that he was sick with leukemia. That sidelined Jones for most of two seasons, but he is now Texas’ leader and led the team with 14.6 PPG.

Courtney Ramey is one of the top three-point shooters in the country. He is knocking down 42% of his triples for Texas, and he is more accurate from beyond the arc than he is inside of it. Ramey is also a top distributor with 4.0 APG.

  • ACU - Kolton Kohl (12.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG)
  • ACU - Joe Pleasant (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
  • TEX - Andrew Jones (14.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
  • TEX - Matt Coleman (13.3 PPG, 4.1 APG)

March Madness Records & Trends

Abilene Christian Wildcats

  • All-Time Record: 0-1
  • Last Appearance: 2019
  • Deepest Run: First Round (2019)

-- Abilene Christian lost its only NCAA Tournament game to Kentucky in 2019, 79-44.
-- Abilene Christian has covered the spread in three of its last four games when playing as the underdog.
-- Abilene Christian has covered the spread in four straight games when playing on a neutral court.
-- Abilene Christian has won 23 of its last 27 games.
-- Abilene Christian has gone OVER the point total in 11 of its last 13 games.

Texas Longhorns

  • All-Time Record: 35-37
  • Last Appearance: 2018
  • Deepest Run: Final Four (2003)

-- Texas has lost nine of its last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Texas has failed to win two or more games in a NCAA Tournament in eight straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Texas has seen at least one team score 75 points or more in four of its last five NCAA Tournament games.
-- Texas has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing on a neutral court.
-- Texas has covered the spread in five straight games.
-- Texas has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six games after going OVER the point total the game prior..
-- Iowa has gone UNDER the point total in nine of its last 11 games.

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