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Last Updated Mar 17, 2022, 18:04 PM

Memphis Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos Picks, Predictions, Odds

Thursday’s NCAA Tournament opener in the West Region at Moda Center in Portland is an AAC vs. Mountain West showdown between the Memphis Tigers and the Boise State Broncos. The opening tip on TNT is slated for 1:45 p.m. (ET).

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Score Prediction

Boise State 69, Memphis 68

Best Bet

Boise State +2.5 (-110)

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MEMPHIS TIGERS vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS PREDICTIONS

The Tigers’ straight-up six-game winning streak came to an end with a blowout loss to Houston in the recent AAC Tournament. Nonetheless, they are still 12-2 SU over their last 14 games. Memphis was 13-5 SU in conference play this season as part of an overall record of 21-10. The two postseason wins came against Central Florida and SMU closing as a favorite.

Boise State won the Mountain West regular season title at 15-3 SU. The Broncos went on to add a tournament title to the resume by beating San Diego State by one point in the championship game as 2.5-point underdogs. The team’s only two SU losses over its last 12 games were against Colorado State as No. 6 seed in the South Region of this tournament.

This should be a great opening round tilt between two teams that matchup closely to one another. Memphis is a top-notch program in the AAC. Yet, I have been extremely impressed with the level of competition in the MWC this season. Given the fact that Boise State is getting 2.5 points on Thursday afternoon, my lean is towards the Broncos in a game they can easily win SU.

MEMPHIS TIGERS vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING ODDS

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MEMPHIS TIGERS vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
  • Matchup: No. 9 vs. No. 8
  • Region: West
  • Venue: Moda Center
  • Location: Portland, Oregon
  • TV-Time: TNT - 1:45 p.m. ET

MEMPHIS TIGERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 21-10
  • ATS: 15-15-1
  • O/U: 16-15

Along with 12 SU victories over their last 14 games, the Tigers have remained a hot betting team as well with a 10-4 record against the spread. There has to be some level of concern in light of the recent 71-53 loss to Houston with so much on the line. That is the kind of loss that could easily linger into the opening game of this tournament.

Going back over this team’s last six games, the total has stayed UNDER in four of those contests. Memphis racked up a combined 155 points in its first two tournament wins against UCF and SMU. However, the 53 points against the Cougars was just the third time the Tigers scored fewer than 60 points this season.

Center Jalen Duren has led the way all season long with a team-high 12.2 points and 8.1 rebounds a game. He is one of five players averaging at least 10 points per game. Forward Emoni Bates (10.4 points) remains out of the lineup with a lingering back injury.

Memphis is scoring an average of 75.4 PPG while shooting 47.1% from the field. That number drops to 35.9% from three-point range. The Tigers are pulling down an average of 38.7 rebounds a game and holding opposing teams to 68.4 points on defense.

BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 27-7
  • ATS: 18-15
  • O/U: 16-17

Along with winning the majority of their games since mid-February, the Broncos have posted a 6-3 record ATS over their last nine contests. The total has gone OVER in 11 of their last 14 games. The only glaring exception to the rule was their 53-52 grinder against San Diego State this past Saturday with the total set at just 118 points.

Overall, Boise State was 18-15 ATS this season. It did post a 7-2 mark against the closing number in nine games as an underdog. The Broncos also went a profitable 5-2 ATS in seven previous games this season played at a neutral site.

While playing shutdown defense earned the Broncos the MWC Tournament title, they are going to need a big effort from forward Abu Kigab (14.7 points) and guard Marcus Shaver Jr. (13.6 points) as the team’s top two scorers. This lineup runs four deep with four players averaging at least 10 PPG.

Boise State is averaging 68.7 points a game while allowing an average of 60.8 points on defense. It is shooting 44.8% from the field and 34.8% from three-point range. The Broncos are hitting just 64.9% from the foul line and pulling down 35 rebounds a game.

Boise State has seen 129 or less game points in four of its last five games on a neutral court. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - MEMPHIS TIGERS

  • Record: 21-10
  • PS/G: 75.4 (63rd)
  • PA/G: 68.4 (157th)

INSIDE THE STATS - BOISE STATE BRONCOS

  • Record: 27-7
  • PS/G: 68.7 (239th)
  • PA/G: 60.8 (13th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • MEM: Jalen Duren - C (12.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg)
  • MEM: Lester Quinones - G (10.1 ppg)
  • BSU: Abu Kigab - F (14.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg)
  • BSU: Marcus Shaver - G (13.6 ppg)

MEMPHIS TIGERS vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING CONCLUSION

Both of these teams deserve their spot in the Big Dance for their efforts all season long. In what should be one of the more entertaining games on Thursday afternoon’s early slate, I think the Broncos are primed to pull off one of the first SU upsets of the day or at least cover. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs.

MARCH MADNESS PICK RESOURCES

MEMPHIS TIGERS vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING TRENDS

  • Memphis has lost five of its last seven NCAA Tournament games.
  • Memphis is 1-2 in the NCAA Tournament when playing as the No. 8 seed.
  • Memphis has won seven of its last nine NCAA Tournament opening games.
  • Memphis has covered the spread in five of its last seven games.
  • Boise State has lost seven straight NCAA Tournament games.
  • Boise State has covered the spread in five of its last seven games when playing on a neutral court.
  • Boise State has won eight of its last nine games. 
  • Boise State has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games.
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