College Football Week 3: Best Prediction Market Trades for Louisville vs. SMU, Ole Miss vs. LSU

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

Updated on 10/11/26

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College football week 3 bring us some massive storylines. Whether you are tuning in to the Big-12 showdown between Houston and Texas Tech or Lane Kiffin's return to Ole Miss, there are plenty of opportunities to get trading on this week's college football action.

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Houston vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech currently has a 74% chance to win according to Polymarket, which is a far cry from their 97% probability on September 6th. Now, when a matchup is that far out it is expected that the liquidity would be low causing major spikes in pricing. Just hours from kickoff, Tech has settled as a 74% favorite.

You can check out my full Houston vs. Texas Tech preview for a full rundown, but I do not think this pricing is giving Houston enough credit for handling Oregon State much better than Texas Tech did. Houston's defense will be strong, and Tech's quarterback situation leaves a lot of questions about Tech's efficiency on offense. I like Houston to win this game at 26%.

Louisville vs. SMU

The probability for this game is much tighter, with Polymarket giving Louisville a 53% chance to win. This is fair given Kevin Jennings feast or famine style of play. Louisville's offense is much more balanced than SMU's, operating at a near 50/50 run-pass split. By using our prediction market odds calculator, 53% equates to -113 on the moneyline. This is a much better price than you are getting at sportsbooks for Louisville to win.

LSU vs. Ole Miss

This is the game of the week, with Lane Kiffin making his return to Ole Miss after leading them to a playoff last season and abandoning them. Polymarket has LSU with a 59% chance to win this matchup, and I think that is a more than fair price. LSU's defense is on another level, presenting a major problem for a lackluster Ole Miss offensive line.

Despite Ole Miss' advantage at quarterback, LSU will come out on top. This presents value on LSU's 59% chance to win. Check out my complete LSU vs. Ole Miss preview.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson