Last Updated Jul 19, 2022, 8:46 PM
2022 Baylor Bears Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
Sports Betting Expert
2022 BAYLOR BEARS BETTING ODDS, PREDICTIONS, PREVIEW
Dave Aranda engineered one of the best one-year turnarounds we’ve seen in recent memory last season. Baylor went 2-7 in 2020 with the Bears’ only wins coming against the two Kansas schools. That had many observers calling for the Bears to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 in 2021, but Baylor surprised everyone by posting a 12-2 record on its way to a Big 12 title and a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss. The Bears ended the season as the highest-ranked team that wasn’t in the College Football Playoff.
Now, we get to see whether or not last year was a fluke or a sign of things to come for Aranda and Baylor. The Bears are returning a total of 13 starters from last season, but they lost nearly all of their offensive production from 2021 and almost all of their starting secondary.
Baylor’s one-two punch of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner left the program. Smith and Ebner combined to run for 2,400 yards last season, so their production will be tough to replace. Fortunately, the Bears have one of the best offensive lines in the Big 12 with four returning starters including First Team All-Big 12 center Jacob Gall and All-American left tackle Connor Galvin. That should bode well for Taye McWilliams, as he looks set to receive the bulk of the carries this season.
Blake Shapen flashed a lot of potential in limited action as a freshman. He completed 72.1% of his passes for 6.9 YPA with five touchdowns and no interceptions, and Shapen led the Bears to a Big 12 championship with a solid performance against a very good Oklahoma State defense. His performance at the end of the season led to incumbent starter Gerry Bohanon transferring to USF, so there is no depth at this position if Shapen is injured.
Shapen doesn’t have many experienced receivers to throw the ball to though. The top three receivers from 2021 have all left the program, and the only player with more than 100 receiving yards for Baylor last season that is back is tight end Ben Sims. Gavin Holmes was a starter in 2020, but he missed all of last year due to injury.
The front seven is loaded with talent. Apu Ika was a First Team All-Big 12 selection in 2021 as a big nose tackle that could stop the run and get to the quarterback. Tulsa transfer Jaxon Player will start alongside him, and he was superb over the last few years as a run stuffing defensive lineman with the Golden Hurricane. Matt Jones and Dillon Doyle both showed flashes at linebacker, and both players could be all-conference selections in 2022.
However, the secondary is a potential issue. Christian Morgan is the only returning starter from last season, and the cornerbacks are very inexperienced. Baylor picked off 19 passes in 2021, and that number will almost certainly fall this year.
The oddsmakers certainly seem to believe that Baylor will regress. The Bears will be tested early in the season with a road trip to Provo to face BYU, and they go on the road for five conference games including Texas and Oklahoma. Aranda is building something special in Waco though, so the Over is the play.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 Wins (-150)
2022 BAYLOR BEARS SCHEDULE
- Sat., Sept. 3 - vs. Albany
- Sat., Sept. 10 - at BYU
- Sat., Sept. 17 - vs. Texas State
- Sat., Sept. 24 - at Iowa State
- Sat., Oct. 1 - vs. Oklahoma State
- Thu., Oct. 13 - at West Virginia
- Sat., Oct. 22 - vs. Kansas
- Sat., Oct. 29 - at Texas Tech
- Sat., Nov. 5 - at Oklahoma
- Sat., Nov. 12 - vs. Kansas State
- Sat., Nov. 19 - vs. TCU
- Fri., Nov. 25 - at Texas
WIN TOTAL ODDS
- Over 7.5 (-150)
- Under 7.5 (+130)
BAYLOR BEARS ODDS TO WIN BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP
This is the best value when it comes to Baylor’s futures odds. The Bears are the defending Big 12 champions, and they should not be this far behind Texas and Oklahoma given what we saw from those teams last season. Baylor can establish the run and has a promising young quarterback in Shapen.
BAYLOR BEARS ODDS TO WIN NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
The Bears ended last season ranked No. 5 overall, so there might be a smidge of value in Baylor to win it all at 66-1. Road games against BYU, Texas, and Oklahoma will make it very tough for the Bears to finish the regular season unbeaten though.
BAYLOR BEARS 2022 HEISMAN CONTENDERS & ODDS
Blake Shapen (QB) +15000
While Shapen is a talented quarterback, there will be a governor on him in this system. He won’t be able to put up the numbers needed for a quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy as the Bears will be content with running the ball and relying on their defense to win games.
2021 BAYLOR BEARS BETTING RESULTS
- SU: 12-2
- ATS: 10-4
- O/U: 6-8
- ATS-Home: 6-1
- ATS-Road: 4-3
- ATS-Favorite: 5-3
- ATS-Underdog: 5-1