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Last Updated Sep 22, 2021, 18:00 PM

UNLV Rebels vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Predictions, Odds, Picks

Sept. 22, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI College Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Can anybody think of a better way to spend a Friday night than betting on the 22nd best team in the country against one of the worst in all of college football? The Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1) come in boasting an impressive record while the UNLV Rebels (0-3) have started without a win. Will Fresno State keep crushing through the season, or will UNLV pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season? This is a home game for Fresno State and will be kicking off at 10:00 p.m. ET on CBSSN.

Score Prediction: Fresno State 48, UNLV 7

Best Bet: Fresno State -30.5

UNLV Rebels vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Predictions

UNLV has been blown out in every tough game they’ve had this season. They came into the year with incredibly low expectations and unfortunately haven't done much to change their “haters” minds.

Fresno State is clearly the better team in this matchup and the spread reflects it. Tough battles against Oregon and UCLA clearly show this team is legit and facing off against UNLV should be a walk in the park. I'm expecting a blowout and UNLV to struggle to get any offense going against a tough Fresno State squad.

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UNLV Rebels vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Odds

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The spread is currently set at -30.5 on most sportsbooks, one of the biggest of the Friday slate. This implies that Fresno State wins this game by at least four touchdowns and a field goal.



The total is currently set at 58.5. I considered betting the under but totals can be incredibly hard to predict in games with huge blowouts. A lot of it depends on how fast Fresno State gets up and that's really hard to predict.


UNLV Rebels vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Mountain West
  • Date: Friday, September 24, 2021
  • Venue: Bulldog Stadium
  • Location: Fresno, California
  • TV-Time: CBSSN - 10:00 p.m. ET



UNLV Rebels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 0-3
  • ATS: 1-1-1
  • O/U: 1-2
  • ATS - Home: 0-1-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

Both of these teams are coming in after facing vastly different opponents. UNLV has faced ranked opponents back to back in Arizona State and Iowa State which resulted in blowouts. The Arizona State loss was by 27 (could have been a lot more if ASU looked better) and the Iowa State loss was by 45. This team came into the year with one of the lowest win totals in the nation and it shows.

The schedule has also been really tough for these guys. Going from Arizona State to Iowa State to now Fresno State is not an easy path but it's an unfortunate result of the program's lack of success. I don't expect them to put up much of a fight, but running back Charles Williams has clearly been their best offensive weapon so far and getting him involved early and often should be their goal.

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-1
  • ATS: 4-0
  • O/U: 2-2
  • ATS - Home: 2-0
  • ATS - Away: 2-0

Fresno State is coming in with two incredibly easy wins over UConn and Cal Poly, along with a tough win against UCLA and a close loss to Oregon. We’ve seen this team show that they can deal with legitimate opponents and go toe to toe with the best college football has to offer.

When they were handed easy opponents in UConn and Cal Poly they destroyed them and covered this number easily. Being skeptical of incredibly high spreads like this is definitely reasonable, but they’ve shown they can cover numbers like this in the past.

Fresno State is averaging 43 points per game so far and only allowing 19.5. Their defense has looked impressive and considering UNLV’s starting quarterback is only 11-of-26 this year, I think they will do just fine slowing him down.

Inside the Stats - UNLV Rebels

  • Record: 0-3
  • VI Ranking: 130
  • Points Scored: 46
  • Points Allowed: 120
  • PS/G: 15.3 (123rd)
  • PA/G: 40 (124th)

Inside the Stats - Fresno State Bulldogs

  • Record: 3-1
  • VI Ranking: 39
  • Points Scored: 172
  • Points Allowed: 78
  • PS/G: 43 (14th)
  • PA/G: 19.5 (49th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UNLV: Charles Williams - RB (59 carries, 249 yards, TD)
  • UNLV: Kyle Williams - WR (9 catches, 117 yards)
  • FRES: Jake Haener - QB (106/144, 1,464 yards, 10 TD, INT)
  • FRES: Ronnie Rivers - RB (62 carries, 352 combined yards, 4 total TD)

Injuries

  • UNLV: Doug Brumfield - QB (Concussion-Probable)

UNLV Rebels vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Conclusion

I think its clear to say that this game has blowout written all over it. Fresno State is simply a much better team thsan UNLV and it's hard to argue with that. Covering a 30-point spread is an easy task but also something they’ve shown they can do in the past.

If you’re not betting Fresno State to cover this number, or even the under, then I probably wouldn't bet this game. It's incredibly hard to trust a team like UNLV and if you're scared off by the big number then passing on this game isn't a huge deal.

UNLV Rebels vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends

  • Fresno State has gone OVER in four of its last six games.
  • Fresno State has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
  • UNLV has lost five straight games.


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