College Football Week 13 Predictions: Oklahoma’s Playoff Chances at Stake

College Football Week 13 Predictions: Oklahoma’s Playoff Chances at Stake

Image Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

We are two weeks away from the end of the college football regular season. It feels like just yesterday we were watching Iowa State and Kansas State face off in Ireland. What better way to celebrate the nearing end of a season than with some college football week 13 predictions?

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CENTRAL MICHIGAN VS. KENT STATE PREDICTION

CMU @ KENT Odds

Both of these teams play extremely slow. Central Michigan is averaging just under 65 offensive snaps per game, while Kent State is averaging just over 60. Kent State’s offense is rather poor, ranking 135th in EPA per rush attempt, 125th in 3rd-down success rate, and 104th in early-downs EPA per play. Central Michigan is not much better, ranking 119th in EPA per rush, 93rd in 3rd-down success rate, and 99th in early-downs EPA per play. I expect a low-scoring matchup for this MACtion game.

Prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas @ Kent State Golden Flashes u50.5 (-110)

ARKANSAS STATE VS. LOUISIANA PREDICTION

UL @ ARST Odds

Arkansas State has Louisiana outmatched. Arkansas State ranks 55th in offensive success rate and is particularly strong on 3rd down, ranking 39th in 3rd down success rate. They will be able to take advantage of this Louisiana defense that ranks 120th in defensive success rate, 130th in net EPA per drive, and 121st against the pass. Louisiana's offense does not do much to make up for their lack of defense, ranking 128th in EPA per pass attempt and 123rd in early-downs EPA per play. Arkansas State wins this game big.

Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves -2.5 (-114)

FLORIDA STATE VS. NC STATE PREDICTION

Florida State has struggled since their Week 1 win against Alabama, but their stats tell a different story from their record. They currently rank 21st in net EPA per drive, rank 26th in offensive success, and are particularly strong on late downs. North Carolina State, on the other hand, has one of the worst pass defenses and struggles significantly on late downs. NC State's offense will not be enough to keep them in this game.

Prediction: Florida State Seminoles -4.5 (-110)

LOUISVILLE VS. SMU PREDICTION

LOU @ SMU Odds

When two strong defenses like this meet up, I am always going to take the under. Louisville ranks 24th in defensive success rate, while SMU ranks 43rd. Both teams have average pace - right around 70 offensive snaps per game. Louisville's strength against the pass and limiting explosives will keep this game under the total.

Prediction: Louisville Cardinals @ SMU Mustangs u52.5 (-105)

MISSOURI VS. OKLAHOMA PREDICTION

The Oklahoma story has been fun this season, but I think their playoff hopes end against Missouri. We all know Oklahoma's defense is extremely strong - arguably one of the best in the nation. However, their offense is extremely lackluster and has struggled since John Mateer returned from his surgery. Missouri's 9th-ranked offensive rush attack is going to be able to set up the pass game, and their defense will push them to a win over Oklahoma.

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Prediction: Missouri Tigers +7.5 (-105) + ML (+245)

BAYLOR VS. ARIZONA PREDICTION

Say what you want about this Baylor Bears team, but boy, do they play fast. They are averaging nearly 82 offensive snaps per game. While Arizona does not play quite as fast, they have a stout rush offense, and are poised to take advantage of this Baylor defense that ranks 113th in defensive success rate. Baylor's offense is fast and strong, while Arizona is going to be able to score on Baylor, resulting in a plethora of points.

Prediction: Baylor Bears @ Arizona Wildcats o62.5 (-105)

WYOMING VS. NEVADA PREDICTION

These are two anemic Mountain West offenses that are meeting up late in the season. Nevada ranks 121st in offensive success rate, while Wyoming ranks 117th for the same metric. However, Wyoming's defense is a top-tier unit in college football. They are particularly strong against the pass, ranking 19th, and they are great at forcing their opponents to have long yardages to go on third down. Nevada's defense isn't bad either, and all of this adds up to a low-scoring Mountain West affair.

Prediction: Nevada Wolf Pack @ Wyoming Cowboys u40.5 (-110)

MARSHALL VS. WEST VIRGINIA PREDICTION

MRSH @ APP Odds

This game gives us a clear mismatch of talent. Normally, when I see such a big statistical difference between two teams, it can be chalked up to a difference in strength of schedules, but Marshall's played the 108th-ranked strength of schedule and Appalachian State has played the 109th. Marshall's offense is great in the air, they are great on early downs and their defense can stop the run. I am not sure how Appalachian State stays in this game.

Prediction: Marshall Thundering Herd -4.5 (-110)

SOUTHERN MISS VS. SOUTH ALABAMA PREDICTION

USM @ USA Odds

Southern Mississippi's offense is the difference maker here. They rank 59th in offensive success, which is strong for a smaller team. They're 38th-ranked pass offense will allow them to take advantage of the South Alabama Jaguars' defense that ranks 111th against the pass. The Golden Eagles defense is nothing to scoff at either. They rank 23rd against the pass and 11th on early Downs EPA per play allowed. The Golden Eagles come out victorious in this matchup.

Prediction: Southern Miss Golden Eagles -1.5 (-115)

ARKANSAS VS. TEXAS PREDICTION

This is more of a situational play than a statistical play, with Texas losing last week to Georgia. Their playoff hopes are all but gone, and I have to imagine that the team's motivation took a hit. Conversely, Taylen Green and this Arkansas offense is poised for an upset. They play fast. They score a lot of points. They could take advantage of a Texas defense that is deflated. I can't say much about Arkansas's defense, but their offense should keep them in this game. This is a potential upset spot for Arkansas.

Prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +9.5 (-110)

USC VS. OREGON PREDICTION

USC @ ORE Odds

This spread seems too high for two teams that are pretty similar. You can make a serious argument that this USC offense is one of the best in the country, ranking 2nd in offensive success rate, 3rd in late down success rate, and 2nd in EPA per pass attempt. USC's back is against the wall as they're fighting for their playoff lives. There's no chance a three-loss USC team gets in. The Trojans offense keeps them in this game, and I think they beat the Ducks outright.

Prediction: USC Trojans +9.5 (-105) + ML (+300)

PITT VS. GEORGIA TECH PREDICTION

PITT @ GT Odds

Georgia Tech's offense is very fun, but their defense is not built to withstand much. They rank 121st against the pass, 110th against the rush, and 112th in cumulative defensive success rate. Conversely, Pitt's defense ranks 9th in defensive success rate and 6th against the run.

Pitt's defense is the difference-maker here, and I think the Panthers come out on top in this ACC matchup.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5 (-105)

I would love to hear from you all. You can interact with me on Threads and best of luck this week!