Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:05 AM
Dinero Tracker - Feb. 3
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Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 5-2 | NCAA BB: 5-9
Friday's results featured a strong NBA night despite the freebie failing, an annoying non-cover on my college hoops lock, part of a brutal evening where I went 5-2 on NCAA totals and 0-7 on sides. I went just 0-4 on in-game parlays. Not ideal. The NBA guarantee came in for a fifth straight day, making it 16-for-22 (72.7%) since Jan. 11. Here are some of the highlights (and lowlights):
SATURDAY'S FREE SELECTION
The pick: Pistons/Heat UNDER 199.5
Although they gave up 100 points for the first time in a six-game span, losing 103-97 in Philadelphia, the Heat still helped deliver the under and should do so again tonight thanks to their methodical approach. A 37-17 fourth quarter nearly helped them battle back against the 76ers and made last night's under call a little too close for comfort, but you should expect this date against the Blake Griffin-infused Pistons to see neither team reach 100 points. Ride the under.
FRIDAY'S FREE SELECTION
The pick: Nets/Lakers OVER 217
D'Angelo Russell shot just 8-for-24 at Staples Center way back on Nov. 3, which contributed to a 124-112 loss. Despite his awful shooting and Lonzo Ball shooting just 3-for-15, there were 57 or more points scored in all four quarters. Brook Lopez hasn't done much of late, getting benched in a contract year, but I think we'll see him have success here. Even with Ball sidelined for the past eight games, the Lakers have surpassed the century mark in their last five. They've given up an average of nearly 118 on the first three legs of their five-game road trip. Brooklyn will have Caris LaVert back and just saw Russell contribute 22 points on 8-for-15 shooting in his most impressive performance since returning to action to help the Nets stun the 76ers. Expect this to be a high-scoring affair and ride the over.
Result: These freebies will now not go undefeated, which isn't ideal. Sorry. I'll try and do better, but the Nets and Lakers should make the same pledge. We fell 16 points short. The fourth quarter here saw L.A. win 17-14, which is absolutely ridiculous. If the game had stayed on it's normal pace, we'd have been neck-deep in chicken dinners.
The pick: Pelicans +6
The crowd at Chesapeake Energy Arena will provide a boost, but the Thunder will be playing their fifth game in seven nights, doing so after falling in Denver last night. The Pelicans will get Nikola Mirotic into the lineup tomorrow, which means guys will be playing to try and impress so they can stay in the rotation. Anthony Davis should have a big night to help aid the cause. Ride New Orelans plus the points, guaranteed.
Result: Davis scored 43 points and helped New Orleans overcome a 10-point deficit following the first quarter as New Orleans rolled to an outright upset in OKC. Don't blame the Thunder for being weary given their recent schedule. The expectation that they would run out of gas paid the bills since the Pels won the final three quarters by a 92-68 margin.
LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK
The pick: UC-Davis -8
The Big Red got on the board in Ivy League play last weekend by defeating Columbia at home by one point. Look for them to be a little less dramatic and putting together a winning streak by taking down depleted Dartmouth. Both Matt Morgan and stone gettings should have big games to deliver the win. Lay the points and ride Cornell, guaranteed.
Result: I watched this entire game, which is more than you did. Cornell found itself in control in the second half until it didn't, allowing the Big Green -- they love colors in the Ancient Eight -- to take a second-half lead. After the Big Red wrestled away the lead, the game was extremely competitive down the stretch, keeping us from covering. Cornell won, but only by 1, 86-85.
The pick: Penn/Brown OVER 148
Brown surrendered 78 points in three of its first four Ivy games and visits Penn, which has seen Ryan Betley get off to a 9-for-14 start from 3-point range. With A.J. Brodeur capable of getting easy buckets inside, the Bears aren't likely to try and slow the pace down, playing to their strengths on the offensive side of the ball. Expect a high-scoring affair in this Ancient Eight clash and hammer the over.
Result: This 95-90 Penn win makes me look good, especially since we didn't even need the OT to deliver the goods. The Ivy League clash was even at 82 headed into the extra session.
The pick: VCU/Rhode Island UNDER 151.5
Rhody's Rams should be able to defend well enough to keep the VCU Rams from doing much damage with their pressure, which would certainly ease the burden on the ranked road favorites. Look for a lower-scoring game than expected to prevail in Richmond. Ride the under in this A-10 clash
Result: It's a good thing that this one didn't end up closer, since Rhody prevailed 81-68 and it looked like this one was going to get away numerous times. URI has now 14 straight with all the wins coming since E.C. Matthews' returned from a broken wrist. Rhody has won 11 straight Atlantic 10 games, its longest streak in program history.
SWING AND A MISS
The pick: Green Bay +7.5
The Phoenix have yet to earn a win on the road this season, which is probably why this spread seems so inflated. Coming into Friday night at 0-10 on the road, UWGB looks to sweep a rival Milwaukee that they’re attempting to get over against for the third time in four seasons. Take the points and ride Green Bay.
Result: The Panthers took control early, were covering by halftime with a 32-23 lead and dominated in the second half, leading by double-digits the entire second half after the first minute of play. Milwaukee led 8-0 and didn't trail after a brief stint early on.
PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE
The pick: Hornets/Pacers OVER 209.5
The Pacers will have talented power forward Myles Turner back in the mix, yet another weapon to deploy against a Charlotte team looking for revenge after being shut down in Indianapolis just last week. Look for Victor Oladipo and Kemba Walker to continue scoring the ball effectively and ride the over in this rematch.
Result: This one was never really in doubt after a first quarter where the Hornets set a new frachise record by scoring 49(!) in the first quarter. The Pacers contributed 37 over the first 12 minutes and won the second half 69-62, making it a nice time for all. This one was so easy it would've been easy to nap through if it hadn't been so entertaining. Kemba Walker scored 41. Victor Oladipo led his side with 35. Sometimes, I'm psychic, but only a little.
Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at [email protected]