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Game 1 Predictions & Odds: Mavericks vs. Clippers

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

The opening day of NBA playoff action concludes with the West's 2-7 pairing taking center stage at AdventHealth Arena.

The No. 2-seeded Los Angeles Clippers meet the No. 7 seed Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of their best-of-seven first-round series.

Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Mavericks vs. Clippers

The L.A. Clippers opened as a five-point favorite at DraftKings but were quickly bet to six, which is where the line has remained as of Sunday evening.

The total opened at 229.5 at DraftKings, 230.5 at MGM and 231 at 231.5 at Caesars and Westgate and has hovered in the 229.5-231 range since. Be sure to follow all the line movements.

Point-Spread Odds

  • Clippers -6
  • Mavericks +6

Money-Line Odds

  • Clippers -250 (Bet $100 to win $40)
  • Mavericks +210 (Bet $100 to win $210)

Total Odds

  • Over 230
  • Under 230

Series Odds

  • Clippers -450
  • Mavericks +375

Inside the Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS)

Overall

  • Dallas: 43-32 SU, 37-35-3 ATS
  • Los Angeles: 49-23 SU, 41-31 ATS

Bubble

  • Dallas: 3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS
  • Los Angeles: 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS
The Clippers have been considered one of the favorites to claim this season's NBA title since landing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George over a year ago and haven't been completely whole most of the season for one reason or another. Despite this, they were one of the better teams against the number, finishing in a three-way tie for 41 covers, second only to Oklahoma City (44). They covered in six of eight seeding contests.

Dallas played the most games (75) of any team this season, tying Portland, and surprised by contending for a Southwest Division title until ultimately slowing down in Orlando. The Mavericks were an underdog in six of their eight bubble battles and won outright twice, overcoming the Bucks and Jazz as six-point 'dogs. Luka Doncic averaged 30 points, 10.1 rebounds and 9.7 assists in seeding games. Kristaps Porzingis averaged 30.4 points and 9.7 rebounds.

Over-Under Total Notes

Totals Report

Overall

  • Dallas: 45-30 O/U
  • Los Angeles: 34-37-1 O/U

Bubble

  • Dallas: 5-3 O/U
  • Los Angeles: 5-3 O/U
The Mavs gave up 126 or more points in five of their eight seeding games, which includes surrendering 153 points against Houston in their opener. The 'under' went 3-1 when they were held to 115 or fewer points, which is lower than the 117.0 they averaged for the season. Not surprisingly, they were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when failing to reach their season average. Only the Blazers saw the 'over' connect as much as Dallas.

The Clippers pride themselves on defense since they have three of the best individual defenders in the game on the roster, but Patrick Beverley barely played due to a calf injury, last suiting up on Aug. 4. The high side connected in five of L.A.'s last six seeding games but still remains down for the season in games involving the Clippers.

Mavericks vs. Clippers Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 6, 2020: L.A. Clippers (-4) 126 vs. Dallas 111, Over 231.5

Jan. 21, 2020: L.A. Clippers (+2.5) 110 at Dallas 107, Under 231.5

Nov. 26, 2020: L.A. Clippers (-1.5) 114 at Dallas 99, Under 225.5

Leonard helped the Clippers pull away down the stretch, finishing with 29 points as L.A. shot 62 percent in the fourth quarter to gain separation from a Dallas team that rallied from 12 down in the second half to tie it at 101 with 6:41 left. Beverley sat, but L.A. center Ivica Zubac played x-factor by finishing with 21 points and 15 rebounds in just over 24 minutes. He tied a franchise record by finishing 10-for-10 from the field.

Leonard scored 35 points to help fuel a 110-107 win in the second game played in Dallas between these teams, who never did get to play at Staples Center. That game's lasting impact occurred when Mavs forward/center Dwight Powell tore his Achilles in the first quarter. Porzingis was just playing his first game back after missing 10 due to knee soreness. He shot 4-for-17.

Both teams brought five-game winning streaks into the first matchup but the Clips cruised behind a 17-point George first quarter that allowed them to take a commanding lead. He scored 26 points and finished a game-high plus-21, while Doncic shot 0-for-8 from 3-point range.

Key Injuries

L.A. Clippers

  • Patrick Beverley: Calf – Questionable
  • Landry Shamet: Foot – Questionable

Utah

  • Dwight Powell: Achilles (Out)
  • Jalen Brunson: Shoulder (Out)
  • Courtney Lee: Calf (Out)
Clippers super sub Montrezl Harrell is expected to be thrown right back in the mix after sitting out bubble play while attending to a family matter. He was with his grandmother as she passed from COVID-19 and returned, wrapping up quarantine but ultimately not playing late in the week. Beverley is listed as questionable due to his calf strain but is expected to return. Shooter Landry Shamet is also listed as questionable for L.A. due to a foot injury.

Powell and guard Jalen Brunson are out for the season. The Dallas roster that came to Orlando lists no injuries, so even though Doncic, Porzingis and Dorian Finney-Smith all dealt with some lingering ailments over the past few weeks, everyone is feeling good for the Mavs entering this series opener.

Game 1 Best Bet Pick

The Clippers can't be counted on to be as sound defensively as they're going to want to be in a few weeks, which means Dallas' best chance to pull off a surprise comes early in the series. Considering Doncic and Porzingis are both scoring it well and L.A. is on a 5-1 run to the 'over,' this total looks a little too low.

Dallas has struggled defensively and gave up 126 points in losing to the Clips 10 days ago, surrendering 54 percent shooting. Lighting in the bubble has led to improved shooting from most teams, so don't be surprised to see this playoff game soar over the big number here. Ride OVER 229.5.

Prediction: Clippers 123, Mavericks 116


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