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Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Predictions, Odds, Picks

 

Oct. 19, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The NBA regular season tips Tuesday night with two of the game’s biggest stars in the game on full display. LeBron James and the LA Lakers host Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET on TNT.

Score Prediction

Lakers 120, Warriors 110

Best Bets

Lakers -5

Lakers Over

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Predictions

This is really a tale of two different season openers clashing together in Los Angeles. The Lakers weren’t settling with last year’s disappointing exit from the playoffs and went out and traded for Russell Westbrook. The Warriors are still trying to figure out life without Klay Thompson, although they looked incredibly sharp in the preseason.

James isn’t the only star on his team as he’ll be significantly helped by a healthy Anthony Davis and the x-factor in Westbrook. The Warriors have Steph and Draymond Green, which isn’t enough to keep up with the Lakers. It can be difficult relying on the preseason as a barometer for how good a team can be, even more so if we look at a head-to-head preseason matchup.

The biggest difference in this game can be seen in the two team’s approached the offseason. The Lakers brought in more than just Russ, adding Deandre Jordan up front and Kent Bazemore to the backcourt. L.A. aggressively replaced the pieces lost in the Westbrook trade. The Warriors without Thompson don’t have the ability to slow down the perimeter, nor do they have enough bodies on defense to keep with the Lakers’ “Big 3” let alone their other players.

The Warriors finished at 39-35 last year despite dealing with multiple injuries, maybe even more impressive was them finishing 38-36 ATS. The Lakers didn’t fair too well ATS, sliding in at 34-44-1.

This is a great home number for the Lakers keeping this in the one possession range, something the Lakers should be able to manage in winning the star battle. Westbrook is such a wildcard, but we also need to see how he fits in with the rest of the team.

The only true concern surrounding the Lakers is how healthy they can stay throughout a long season with an aging roster. None of that impacts their season opener, which puts LA at full strength and rest for this game. Add the energy of opening at home, and the Lakers are set for a convincing victory.

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds




Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Pacific
  • Date: Tuesday, October 19, 2021
  • Venue: STAPLES Center
  • Location: Los Angeles, California
  • TV-Time: TNT - 10:30 p.m. ET


Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

2020-21 Stats

  • SU: 39-35
  • ATS: 38-36
  • O/U: 31-42-1
  • ATS - Home: 23-14
  • ATS - Away: 15-22

The Warriors aren’t near full strength, down Thompson but also fellow starter James Wiseman. The team will now have to rely on Andrew Wiggins and Green to pick up a ton of slack defensively, despite both missing time in the preseason. Ultimately the Warriors don’t have the talent nor conditioning to keep up with the Lakers.

Golden State will have to rotate a lot more players than they normally will at full strength. That’s not a great counter to the Lakers top-heavy team, especially if L.A. runs Westbrook some with the second unit.

They still have Curry and his 24.5 PPG in the preseason. For whatever they may get from guys like Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney, there’s the always existing threat of Curry looming. Good enough to keep it respectable, but not to cover the spread.

Los Angeles Lakers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

2020-21 Stats

  • SU: 45-34
  • ATS: 34-44-1
  • O/U: 31-46-2
  • ATS - Home: 15-25
  • ATS - Away: 19-19-1

We know what LeBron and AD can do together on the floor, but still have some questions as to how Westbrook fits. While there may only be one ball to go around, we have some fantastic facilitators to choose from with the Lakers.

As easy as James and Westbrook can get to the rim, or Davis can score, any of them can turn into a double-digit assist guy. Unlike their opponent, the Lakers don’t have anywhere near as much roster chemistry to build – even with Westbrook being new.

The Warriors are down guys and will be relying on two other players who may not be at peak conditioning to start. The Lakers have guys like Bazemore and Jordan who step into secondary roles. Even Westbrook may find himself on the scoring side of passes from James.

The team may have Westbrook listed as their starting PG, but this has “LeBron the facilitator” written all over it. James should be able to take full advantage of the spacing that Westbrook now adds to the team.


The Los Angeles Lakers have won 13 of their last 14 games when facing the Warriors as favorites. (AP)

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Head-to-Head

These two teams met earlier in the preseason with the Warriors getting the 111-99 edge with Curry sitting out as a DNP-CD. The Lakers got a full look at their new “big 3” with some added minutes for newcomer Carmelo Anthony.

If anything, the minutes for the Lakers trio, Melo and Bazemore – even in a losing effort – was better than anything the Warriors did. Like most preseason games, it came down to bench minutes, however the starter minutes favored the Lakers. Expect heavy minutes for the top seven players on the Lakers to outweigh the effort from the Warriors.

Key Players to Watch

2020-21 Stats

  • GSW: Stephen Curry - PG (32 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.8 apg)
  • GSW: Draymond Green - PF (7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 8.9 apg)
  • LAL: LeBron James - SF (25 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 7.8 apg)
  • LAL: Anthony Davis - PF (21.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg)

Injuries

  • GSW: James Wiseman - C (Out)
  • GSW: Klay Thompson - SF (Out)
  • GSW: Jonathan Kuminga - PF (Out)
  • LAL: Wayne Ellington - SG (DTD)
  • LAL: Malik Monk - SG (DTD)
  • LAL: Kendrick Nunn - G (DTD)

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Conclusion

There’s little doubt Steph and company want to come into the Staples Center and spoil LeBron’s home opener. The question remains on just how they can do it with the talent right now. The Warriors could easily be a playoff contender once Thompson and Wiseman return, as the Lakers could easily burn out with an aging roster.

The season opener doesn’t need to wait for either to happen. This is a three possession win for the Lakers as they successfully showcase their new players. They also hit over their team total of 115.5, mainly because the Warriors don’t have enough bodies to slow down Davis, James, and Westbrook.

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Trends

  • Golden State has failed to cover the spread in five straight season opening games.
  • Golden State has gone UNDER the point total in four straight road games.
  • Los Angeles has won 13 of its last 14 games when facing Golden State as the favorite.
  • The point total has failed to go OVER in four of the last five meetings.
  • The road team has covered the spread in four of its last five games.

  
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