Texas Southern vs. Mount Saint Mary’s Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 18, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Texas Southern vs. Mount Saint Mary's Predictions

Texas Southern and Mount Saint Mary's get together in a coin-flip play-in game on Thursday at 5:10 p.m. on truTV with the Mountaineers listed as one-point favorites with a total set at 132 points.

Both of these teams are playing in Bloomington's Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall for the right to move on and play the Michigan Wolverines, the No. 1 seed in the East Region. The best part about these First Four games is that they're generally pretty evenly matched, and this is no exception.

Texas Southern is the play here, as they ran through the SWAC tournament, including a 19-point win over Prairie View A&M as a three-point underdog. They have won nine in a row while going 7-2 ATS during the run. Yes, 'The Mount' won both of its game in the NEC, but they were .500 overall in the regular season, and they are just a month removed from a three-game losing and non-cover skid.

• Score Prediction: Texas Southern 73 Mount St. Mary's 64
• Best Bets - Side: Texas Southern -1
• Best Bets - Total: OVER 132.5

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First Four Predictions

Thursday's Preview - Mar. 18, 2021 16 vs. 16 11 vs. 11 16 vs. 16 11 vs. 11

Texas Southern vs. Mount Saint Mary's Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Texas Southern -1
• Total: 132.5
• Money-Line: Texas Southern -115 Mount Saint Mary's -105

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Texas Southern 500/1
• Mount Saint Mary's 500/1

Odds to Win East Regional

• Texas Southern 100/1
• Mount Saint Mary's 100/1

Odds Subject to Change

Handicapping Texas Southern vs. Mount Saint Mary's

Yes, Texas Southern won three games in the SWAC Conference tournament, but they certainly didn't just get hot. The Tigers have rattled off nine consecutive victories since their last loss on Feb. 21.

Texas Southern might have record better than 16-8 if not for a challenging non-conference tilt. They had losses at Washington State, at Oklahoma State, at St. Mary's (CA), at Auburn and at Auburn, while surprising Wyoming as a 10.5-point underdog in Laramie back on Nov. 30, 76-74.

Mount Saint Mary's was a rather marginal team, going .500 during the regular season before getting hot at the right time, winning two games in the NEC Tournament to get to Bloomington.

• Region: West
• Matchup: 16 vs. 16
• Venue: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
• Location: Bloomington, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 18, 2021
• TV-Time: TruTV - 5:10 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Texas Southern Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Texas Southern has covered four straight games overall, and they're an impressive 10-4-1 ATS in the previous 15 games against a team with a winning overall record. The Tigers are also 7-1-1 ATS in the previous nine neutral-site games.

A far as the total, the OVER is an impressive 21-10-1 in the past 32 games overall for the Tigers, and the OVER is 5-1 in their past six NCAA Tournament appearances.

Seed: 16
Conference: SWAC
Bid: Auto

• SU: 16-8
• ATS: 11-10-2
• O/U: 13-9-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U
• Notable Wins: None

• PS/G: 74.8 (88th)
• PA/G: 69.7 (161st)
• Off Rtg: 100 (214th)
• Def Rtg: 93.1 (28th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers

Mount Saint Mary's has cashed in four straight games against the number, and they're an impressive 6-2 ATS in the previous eight against teams with a winning overall mark.

The OVER has connected in seven of the past eight games for MSM on a neutral-site court, and the OVER has hit in four of its past five games in the NCAA Tournament.

Seed: 16
Conference: NEC
Bid: Auto

• SU: 12-10
• ATS: 13-9
• O/U: 8-14

• Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U
• Notable Wins: None

• PS/G: 63.7 (326th)
• PA/G: 62.3 (17th)
• Off Rtg: 98.7 (240th)
• Def Rtg: 96.5 (81st)

Key Players to Watch

Michael Weathers and Joirdon Karl Nicholas were a two-headed monster that SWAC foes found difficult to contain this season, but especially in the conference tourney. They showed out in the league tournament, as they each averaged 18 or more points per game.

Texas Southern had four players average double digits in points, however, as Galen Alexander averaged 10.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG, while John Walker III was good for 10.3 PPG while pulling down a team-high 6.5 RPG. He was one of three players to swat at least one shot per contest, too.

The Mountaineers have their two-headed monster, too, as Damian Chong Qui averaged 17.5 PPG and Nana Opoku posted 16.0 PPG, while both had at least five rebounds per game in the NEC Tournament.

• TXSO - Michael Weathers (16.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
• TXSO - Joirdon Karl Nicholas (11.3 PPG, 7 RPG)

• MSMY - Damian Chong-Qui (15.1 PPG, 5.5 APG)
• MSMY - Nana Opoku (10.3 PPG, 7 RPG)

Despite reaching the NCAA Tournament, Mount Saint Mary's has only won 12 of 22 games but are on a four-game winning streak. (AP)

March Madness Records & Trends

Texas Southern Tigers

• All-Time Record: 1-8
• Last Appearance: 2018
• Deepest Run: Second Round (2015)

-- Texas Southern has lost eight of its last nine NCAA Tournament games.
-- Texas Southern has covered the spread in three straight games when playing on a neutral court.  

Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers

• All-Time Record: 2-5
• Last Appearance: 2017
• Deepest Run: First Round (2017)

-- The Mount has lost five of its last seven NCAA Tournament games.
-- The Mount has won its first game in two of its last three NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- The Mount has covered the spread in four straight games.
-- The Mount has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.

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