College Football Predictions, Picks: Best Bets for Iowa vs. Michigan, Major Underdog

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

College football week 4 brings us a handful of matchups and even more matchups with big-time pull. Whether you want in on the Big Ten matchup between Oregon and USC or an SEC showdown between Ole Miss and Florida, I have a pick for everyone.

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Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction

In a pass-heavy college football world, these two teams prefer to hit the ground running. Literally. 56.9% of Michigan's offensive play calls have been runs, and 50.7% of Iowa's offensive play calls have been runs.

This should lead us to a low-scoring affair where the clock is always running and the total score is minuscule. These teams ranks 11th and 18th in overall defense, and both quarterbacks lack the ability to explode through the air. This will be a classic, low-scoring, Big Ten matchup.

Here is our complete Michigan vs. Iowa preview.

Iowa vs. Michigan Prediction: Iowa vs. Michigan Under 38.5

Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction

Florida comes into this matchup with a 0% turnover play rate and a 3.06% big-time throw rate - both marks are better than their opponent's. Florida has a more balanced approach to their offense, with 54.6% of their plays being rushes (compared to 37.5% for Ole Miss).

It may be shocking that Florida is a favorite here, but their balanced offense and high floor is more appealing to me than the ceiling that Trinidad Chambliss unlocks. I think Florida covers in this SEC matchup.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction: Florida -3.5

Oregon vs. USC Prediction

USC is not coming into this game in the best of spots. That had one of the biggest travel sessions last week when they headed to Rutgers and looked sleepy off of the plane. Now they return from their trip and prepare for an Oregon team that has a very small margin of error. If motivation is a factor, Oregon has the motivation.

Despite having a loss, Oregon ranks out very well in power rankings. I think Oregon takes this matchup.

Oregon vs. USC Prediction: Oregon -2.5

Clemson vs. California Prediction

These two offenses have left a lot to be desired. Cal ranks 108th in EPA/pass and 117th in EPA/rush. Clemson ranks 122nd in EPA/pass. These numbers indicate that points are going to be tough to come by in this ACC matchup.

Both of these defenses are extremely strong against the pass - both ranking in the top 40 in college football for EPA/pass allowed.

Clemson's offense has a 0% big-time throw rate, which shows a lack of explosiveness. This is likely going to be a low-scoring game.

Clemson vs. California Prediction: Under 48.5

Sam Houston State vs. Texas Tech Prediction

This is a fun little matchup I have my eye on. Coming into the season, Sam Houston had the top-rated transfer class in Conference USA. So far this season, they boast a 7.35% big-time throw rate. When you compare that to Texas Tech's turnover-worthy play rate of 5.66%, there could be enough variance to set the stage for a major upset.

Sam Houston State vs. Texas Tech Prediction: Sam Houston Moneyline (+4000)

San Diego State vs. Toledo Prediction

This SDSU offense is not a fun watch. They rank 136th in EPA/pass and 106th in EPA/rush. Toledo's offense outmatches SDSU's ten-fold, and that should be the difference-maker in this game. Toledo opened as the underdog on Sunday, and this line corrected very quickly. Toledo wins this game handily.

San Diego State vs. Toledo Prediction: Toledo -2.5

Oklahoma vs. Georgia Predictions

Oklahoma's offense is abysmal, but man does their defense continue to impress. They are the top defense against the pass and rank 12th against the rush. They have allowed the 3rd-longest yards-to-go on 3rd down, with an average of 9.08 yards.

Georgia's defense is strong as well, and although I believe Georgia will come out on top, the fact that this will likely be a low-scoring affair works out in the favor of the underdogs.

Both teams play very slow - 64 offensive snaps per game.

Oklahoma vs. Georgia Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners +14.5 (-120) AND Under 45

Nebraska vs. Michigan State Prediction

This is an Anthony Colandrea pick. He is the top-rated rushing QB this season and has yet to log a turnover-worthy play. Nebraska's offense ranks in the top 5 in passing and rushing, and they rank 1st in late-down success rate.

Michigan State has a program that is nothing to sneeze at, but it really feels like Nebraska is being undervalued in the market.

Nebraska vs. Michigan State Prediction: Nebraska Cornhuskers -5.5

Tulsa vs. Arkansas Prediction

Tulsa does everything right that a Group of Six team needs to do to upset a Power Four team. They run the ball very well, ranking 13th in EPA/rush. They also have a strong defense overall. Arkansas, on the other hand, is abysmal on both sides of the ball. We are getting Tulsa at a discount because of the logo, not because of the stats.

Tulsa vs. Arkansas Prediction: Tulsa +7.5 AND moneyline (+235)

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson