North Texas vs. Villanova Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 21, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert

North Texas vs. Villanova Predictions

North Texas is a legit force to make a run in this tournament, especially against a hobbled Villanova team. The Wildcats, though, responded well to critics with a solid win over Winthrop. Villanova knows they're poised to be upset on, which should in result see a much more focused and careful Wildcats team moving forward.

The spread is tough, but Villanova can cover anywhere from six to seven points here. The point total is very low however, so there is some faith in the point total market going OVER, as Villanova should reach 60 points in the game. With the confidence North Texas has, along with their solid defense, the game might be closer than oddsmakers have it.

  • Score Prediction: Villanova 67 North Texas 61
  • Best Bets - Side: North Texas +6.5
  • Best Bets - Total: OVER 127

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North Texas vs. Villanova Betting Odds

  • Spread: Villanova -6.5
  • Total:127
  • Money-Line: Villanova -270 North Texas +230

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

Odds to Win South Region

Odds Subject to Change

Second Round Predictions

Sunday's Previews - Mar. 21, 2021

Handicapping North Texas vs. Villanova

North Texas is on fire right now, covering the spread in five straight games. This is a game that North Texas can win outright, so if you're brave enough then feel free to grab the ML. Villanova should win SU however, so going with the Mean Green spread is probably the best bet to consider for the winner here.

Typically North Texas goes UNDER, but that is against worse competition and slower-paced schools. Villanova is neither of those things, so expect the Wildcats to be able to score enough points for the low total to tip over.

Both schools should find a way to touch 60 points in this one, which would only need a few more buckets to hit from there. North Texas typically goes OVER against strong opponents, evident against Purdue and within the conference when facing teams such as UAB or Marshall.

  • Region: South
  • Matchup: 5 vs. 13
  • Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Date: Mar. 21, 2021
  • TV-Time: 8:45 p.m. (ET) - TNT

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - North Texas Mean Green

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The defense for North Texas, mixed with a majority of weak opponents on their schedule, is a main reason they go UNDER so often. The Mean Green present the 11th-fewest points allowed per game in the nation, and the 29th-most efficient defensive rating too.

What makes the OVER a great play in this game is the fact that North Texas is a great free throw shooting team. The Mean Green convert 73.9% of their charity stripe shots, which could play a factor if Villanova gets in late foul trouble.

Seed: 13
Conference: C-USA
Bid: Auto

  • SU: 18-9
  • ATS: 17-9
  • O/U: 11-15
  • Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, 2-3 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Purdue
  • PS/G: 70.1 (210th)
  • PA/G: 61.5 (11th)
  • Off Rtg: 106.2 (95th)
  • Def Rtg: 93.2 (29th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Villanova Wildcats

Villanova enters with the 11th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, another sign pointing towards the OVER. Much like North Texas, Villanova converts their free throws. The Wildcats hit 76.3% of their free throws which ranks 31st nationally.

The great free throw shooting from both teams should see more points scored from the charity stripe in the second half. Villanova's three-point shooting should also add conviction to the point total market, as the Wildcats hit 9.2 a game which ranks 31st nationally.

Seed: 5
Conference: Big East
Bid: At-large

  • SU: 17-6
  • ATS: 13-10
  • O/U: 12-11
  • Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Creighton, Texas
  • PS/G: 75.4 (75th)
  • PA/G: 67 (81st)
  • Off Rtg: 113.3 (11th)
  • Def Rtg: 100.6 (185th)

Key Players to Watch

Javion Hamlet took over for North Texas against Purdue, the team's leading scorer. He will need to mirror another magical offensive performance for North Texas to get into the Sweet 16. James Reese, Thomas Bell and Zachary Simmons also average 10 or more points a game for North Texas.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is the clear-cut 'go-to guy' now that Gillespie is out for Villanova. Justin Moore and Jermaine Samuels are strong contributors as well, while Caleb Daniels is flirting with a double-digit point total at 9.8 points per game.

  • NOTX - Javion Hamlet (15.3 PPG, 4.6 APG)
  • NOTX - James Reese (10.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
  • NOVA - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (16 PPG, 8.4 RPG)
  • NOVA - Justin Moore (12.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG)

2021 March Madness Tournament Team Results

North Texas was able to cover the spread and beat Purdue outright as the underdog. North Texas has now covered and won SU in five straight games. Villanova stopped the bleeding of a two-game losing streak with a win over Winthrop, covering the spread. Both schools went UNDER the point tottal in their first round game.

March Madness Records & Trends

North Texas Mean Green

  • All-Time Record: 1-3
  • Last Appearance: 2010
  • Deepest Run: Second Round (2020)

-- North Texas has lost three straight NCAA Tournament games.
-- North Texas has failed to score 66 points or more in three of its last four NCAA Tournament games.
-- North Texas has covered the spread in five straight games when playing on a neutral court.
-- North Texas has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 games.

Villanova Wildcats

  • All-Time Record: 66-37
  • Last Appearance: 2019
  • Deepest Run: Champion (2018)

-- Villanova has won the National Championship in two of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Villanova has won 16 of its last 18 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Villanova has been eliminated by a Big Ten school in two straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Villanova has failed to cover the spread in three of its last five games.

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