Wisconsin vs. Baylor Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 21, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

Wisconsin vs. Baylor Predictions

As the top seed in the South Region, Baylor has been opened as a six-point favorite for Sunday’s 2:40 p.m. start on CBS. The total line for this Big Ten vs Big 12 tilt has been set at 138 points.

Give credit to Wisconsin’s inspired performance against North Carolina is its opening round matchup. However, this has been a tough team to handicap all season long. Prior to that double-digit win, the Badgers had lost six of their last eight games straight-up while going 2-5-1 against the spread.

Baylor appears to be in top tournament form after hammering Hartford on Friday. Take the Bears to keep things rolling with a win and cover in Sunday’s second round contest.

I would also go with the OVER on a lower than expected total line. Baylor held back in the second half of Friday’s game. That will not be the case on Sunday.

  • Score Prediction: Baylor 81 Wisconsin 70
  • Best Bets - Side: Baylor -6
  • Best Bets - Total: OVER 138

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Wisconsin vs. Baylor Betting Odds

  • Spread: Baylor -6
  • Total: OVER 138
  • Money-Line: Baylor -260 Wisconsin +220

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

Odds to Win South Region

Odds Subject to Change

Second Round Predictions

Sunday's Previews - Mar. 21, 2021

Handicapping Wisconsin vs. Baylor

There is no doubt that Wisconsin has been battle tested this season playing in the loaded Big Ten but it was just 10-10 SU in conference play. Playing a nearly perfect game against North Carolina is one thing. Duplicating that performance against a No. 1 seed is a whole other story.

The was some concern with Baylor losing two games down the stretch after going undefeated for most of the season.

None the less, the Bears have the talent and the experience to raise their level of play as needed. This game will remain interesting deep into the second half, but only laying six points is a gift.

  • Region: South
  • Matchup: 1 vs. 9
  • Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Date: Mar. 21, 2021
  • TV-Time: 2:40 p.m. (ET) - CBS

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Wisconsin Badgers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The Badgers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games against a team from the Big 12 and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. They went 1-5 SU in their last six games closing as underdogs.

The total has gone OVER in five of Wisconsin’s last six games. It has gone OVER in two of its last three games played at a neutral site.

Seed: 9
Conference: Big Ten
Bid: At-large

  • SU: 18-12
  • ATS: 11-11
  • O/U: 15-15
  • Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U
  • Notable Wins: UNC, Rutgers, Maryland
  • PS/G: 70.1 (208th)
  • PA/G: 64.2 (38th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.7 (101st)
  • Def Rtg: 96.8 (89th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Baylor Bears

Baylor has failed to cover in four of its last five games. It went 15-10 ATS this season as part of an overall SU record of 23-2. It is an even 3-3 ATS in its last six neutral-site games.

The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Bears’ last 13 games. However, it has stayed UNDER in four of their last give games against a Big Ten team. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games played at a neutral site.

Seed: 1
Conference: Big 12
Bid: At-large

  • SU: 23-2
  • ATS: 15-10
  • O/U: 15-10
  • Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Illinois, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (x2), Texas Tech (x2)
  • PS/G: 84.2 (4th)
  • PA/G: 66 (61st)
  • Off Rtg: 118.7 (3rd)
  • Def Rtg: 93.1 (28th)

Key Players to Watch

Guard Brad Davidson had the hottest hand in Friday’s win with 29 points while going 5-for-7 from three-point range. He also had a team-high six rebounds. Guard D’Mitrik Trice added 21 points while hitting eight of his 15 shots from the field.

Guard MaCio Teague led the way for Baylor in the opening round with 22 points while shooting 9-for-17 from the field. He converted on half of his eight attempts beyond the three-point line. Guard Jared Butler came close to a double-double with 13 points and nine assists.

  • WIS - D'Mitrik Trice (13. 9 PPG 4 APG)
  • WIS - Micah Potter (12.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
  • BAY - Jared Butler (17 PPG, 4.9 APG)
  • BAY - MaCio Teague (16.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG)

2021 March Madness Tournament Team Results

The Badgers closed as slight two-point underdogs in their 85-62 romp over North Carolina. The total went OVER the closing 135.5-point line.

The spread in Baylor’s opener closed at 25.5 points in its 79-55 victory against Hartford. The total in that game stayed UNDER the 138.5-point closing total line.

March Madness Records & Trends

Wisconsin Badgers

  • All-Time Record: 39-23
  • Last Appearance: 2019
  • Deepest Run: Final Runner-up (2015)

-- Wisconsin has reached the Sweet 16 in four of its last five NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Wisconsin has won 14 of its last 19 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Wisconsin has failed to cover the spread in four of its last six games.
-- Wisconsin has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games.

Baylor Bears

  • All-Time Record: 15-14
  • Last Appearance: 2019
  • Deepest Run: Elite Eight (2010)

-- Baylor has failed to reach the Sweet 16 in three of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Baylor has lost to a school seeded No. 12 or higher in two of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Baylor has seen at least one team score 70 points or more in seven straight NCAA Tournament games.
-- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last 10 games.

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