June 19, 2021
The rubber match between ‘The Notorious’ Conor McGregor and Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier is in the books for July 10th, later this year. The fight will be the third fight between the two, and will settle the score once and for all.
The winner is likely next in line to face Charles Oliveira, who just dropped Michael Chandler at UFC 262 and I was all over the Brazilian striker.
The UFC 264 event will take place on Saturday July 10 in the famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The venue will likely be at a max capacity of roaring UFC fans.
Let’s dive into the odds for this Bout:, and see if we can chisel some value out of the betting market. UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 betting odds analysis below.
UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Odds Movement
UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Odds Comparison
McGregor vs. Poirier 2 Recap
At UFC 257, Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier locked horns for the second time in the UFC Apex facility, in Las Vegas, Nevada. After an action-packed first round that saw McGregor up 10-9 on all three judges’ scorecards, the Irishman would succumb to defeat halfway through the second.
The loss would mark the first TKO loss in McGregor’s career, and was a huge upset in the MMA community.
Writer’s verdict: Why did McGregor lose?
Conor McGregor failed to deal with the calf kick of Dustin Poirier, and was simply picked apart as a result of that. Despite winning the first round, Conor wasn’t showing any ability to either defend nor counter the kicks from Dustin.
Furthermore, after realizing that the contest wasn’t going his way, there was some composure lacking from the Irishman. From about the end of the first round and on, we only really got a 1-2 combination from McGregor, which Dustin easily took on his high guard. Only once did Conor show Poirier different looks, when he hit him with a good leg kick to the quad, at the end of the first.
However, despite connecting well with it, McGregor never once attempted anything like it for the remainder of the fight, except for a missed spinning back kick that was nowhere near Poirier’s chin.
Personally, the fight left me scratching my head as to what the game plan was for McGregor. It was clear that Poirier wanted to get out of the first round alive, so that he could start dragging Conor into deep waters, but I’m not sure whether there was more to McGregor and his team’s game plan than ‘knock him out in round one’, and ‘don’t use anything but your hands’.
The first two McGregor-Poirier fights ended inside distance and many pundits believe another quick result if likely come July. (AP)
UFC 264: Poirier Stats in the last fight
UFC 264: McGregor Stats in the last fight
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Odds Analysis
Currently the betting market has decided that this is a pick’em fight, meaning that both fighters’ odds are around -110.
Whenever a fight is at pick’em odds, it basically means that each fighter has a 50% of winning, implying that it will be a coinflip fight.
After re-watching McGregor and Poirier fight at UFC 257, I truly believe McGregor’s head isn’t in the game anymore. He was out struck by the inferior striker, in theory, and had no counters to the leg kick that Poirier was consistently hitting him with. Furthermore, in rematches, winners of the last Bout: tend to run away with the second, and have a win rate upwards of 75%.
Of course, McGregor has redeemed a loss before, against Nate Diaz, but the way in which he lost to Dustin makes the difference for me. He lost in his own realm, the striking. Against Diaz, he lost on the ground.
The confidence aspect also plays into this for Poirier, as he walks into this fight knowing that he can beat McGregor. I think that's a big plus for ‘The Diamond’.
Poirier also lands more while absorbing less on average than McGregor, which statistically is a big plus in veteran fights that play out on the feet. At pick’em odds I think Dustin holds the value. However, expect fans to get in on McGregor as we move closer to the date, causing a rise in value for Poirier.
If you’re backing Poirier, I say wait a few weeks for the casual money to come in, and then place your bets.
UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 - The Trilogy
McGregor’s UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Poirier’s UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Breakdown
This is the third fight between these two lightweight powerhouses, meaning that they’ve both had plenty of opportunities to adapt to the other.
Currently, the score is 1-1, with McGregor winning the first, and Poirier winning the second. Despite this, McGregor is by far the one with the most on the line in this fight, as two consecutive losses would be bad for his stock as a PVP draw.
McGregor’s biggest strength is his striking, which is why we almost always see him force his fights to take place standing. Out of the two, Poirier seems to have the larger toolbox, as he is able to get takedowns and throw strikes to various areas on his opponents. We saw his leg kicks to full effect against McGregor in his last outing.
At the same time, McGregor looked uncharacteristically one-sided at UFC 257, using only his hands against Poirier.
You’re only as good as your last one, and I think that has never been more important to underline than for this rubber match between Poirier and McGregor. Most times when we try to predict McGregor’s fights, we use his performances against Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, and even Nate Diaz as backing to validify the argument of his skill set still holding up. This is something I often catch myself doing.
We simply must remember that this game moves incredibly fast, and the same fights we’re using to rate McGregor’s skills are already half a decade behind us.
McGregor looked at Poirier like he’d discovered fire when he started firing the calf kicks, and had no answer for it. What’s to stop Poirier from doing the same thing in the third fight? Not much.
McGregor also doesn’t really kick anymore for some reason unknown, and therefore it's far easier for his opponents to anticipate where the strikes are coming from.
After getting tagged twice, Poirier had downloaded enough data to be able to cover up every time Conor entered the pocket with a 1-2 combination.
With all that said, McGregor can always pull a rabbit out of the hat.
I anticipate this fight to go to the fighter that utilizes the more well-rounded game plan. McGregor simply needs to stop treating this as a boxing match if he wants to win, and Poirier has the game plan laid out quite clearly for him.
All factors considered, I think Poirier takes the rubber match, and McGregor retires in the cage.