UFC 264 McGregor vs Poirier 3 Betting Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

11 minute read

The rubber match between ‘The Notorious’ Conor McGregor and Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier is in the books for July 10th, later this year. The fight will be the third fight between the two, and will settle the score once and for all.

The winner is likely next in line to face Charles Oliveira, who just dropped Michael Chandler at UFC 262 and I was all over the Brazilian striker.

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The UFC 264 event will take place on Saturday July 10 in the famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The venue will likely be at a max capacity of roaring UFC fans.

Let’s dive into the odds for this bout and see if we can chisel some value out of the betting market. UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 betting odds analysis below.

CONOR TO CLOSE AS RARE UNDERDOG

Looking below, you can start to see that bettors started to show their hand last week with Poirier, who is now listed at -130 betting odds at BetMGM sportsbooks.

McGregor is +110 underdog as of Saturday July 10, it will be just the third time in his UFC career that bettors can play Conor as a 'dog.

Make a note that the previous instances took place at UFC 229 when McGregor (+170) was finished inside distance by Khabib Nurmagomedov (-190). The other time came at UFC 194 when McGregor faced Jose Aldo (-115) at a very short price (-105) and Conor finished the fight in 13 seconds.

Usually with McGregor fights in Nevada, you'll see one-sided action towards the Irish superstar but that hasn't been the case at the Las Vegas Sportsbooks either.

Here are the latest lines at the major outfits that will be taking heavy action in Las Vegas:

• SuperBook: Poirier -140 McGregor +120
• Circa: Poirier -137 McGregor +117
• South Point: Poirier -130 McGregor +110
• Stations: Poirier -130 McGregor +110

Las Vegas Odds Subject to Change - As of Saturday July 10 - 10:30 a.m. ET

The main event is expected to start on Saturday between 11:00 p.m. ET and 12:00 a.m. ET with ESPN PPV providing full coverage of the UFC 264 headliner.

UFC 264: MCGREGOR VS. POIRIER 3 ODDS MOVEMENT

ODDS: DUSTIN POIRIER VS. CONOR MCGREGOR (7/10/21)

UFC 264: MCGREGOR VS. POIRIER 3 ODDS COMPARISON

MCGREGOR VS. POIRIER 3 - MONEY LINE ODDS (7/10/21)

Fighters
Conor McGregor	+105	+107	-103	+105
Dustin Poirier	-125	-128	-125	-130

LAS VEGAS BOOKS READY FOR MCGREGOR, UFC 264

MCGREGOR VS. POIRIER 2 RECAP

At UFC 257, Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier locked horns for the second time in the UFC Apex facility, in Las Vegas, Nevada. After an action-packed first round that saw McGregor up 10-9 on all three judges’ scorecards, the Irishman would succumb to defeat halfway through the second.

The loss would mark the first TKO loss in McGregor’s career, and was a huge upset in the MMA community.

Writer’s verdict: Why did McGregor lose?

Conor McGregor failed to deal with the calf kick of Dustin Poirier, and was simply picked apart as a result of that. Despite winning the first round, Conor wasn’t showing any ability to either defend nor counter the kicks from Dustin.

Furthermore, after realizing that the contest wasn’t going his way, there was some composure lacking from the Irishman. From about the end of the first round and on, we only really got a 1-2 combination from McGregor, which Dustin easily took on his high guard. Only once did Conor show Poirier different looks, when he hit him with a good leg kick to the quad, at the end of the first.

However, despite connecting well with it, McGregor never once attempted anything like it for the remainder of the fight, except for a missed spinning back kick that was nowhere near Poirier’s chin.

Personally, the fight left me scratching my head as to what the game plan was for McGregor. It was clear that Poirier wanted to get out of the first round alive, so that he could start dragging Conor into deep waters, but I’m not sure whether there was more to McGregor and his team’s game plan than ‘knock him out in round one’, and ‘don’t use anything but your hands’.

UFC 264: POIRIER STATS IN THE LAST FIGHT

• Knockdowns: 1
• Strikes landed: 48 of 91
• Takedowns: 1 of 1
• Control time: 1:42

UFC 264: MCGREGOR STATS IN THE LAST FIGHT

• Knockdowns: 0
• Strikes landed: 29 of 66
• Takedowns: 0 of 1
• Control time: 1:07

UFC 264: POIRIER VS. MCGREGOR 3 ODDS ANALYSIS

Currently the betting market has decided that this is a pick’em fight, meaning that both fighters’ odds are around -110.

Whenever a fight is at pick’em odds, it basically means that each fighter has a 50% of winning, implying that it will be a coinflip fight.

After re-watching McGregor and Poirier fight at UFC 257, I truly believe McGregor’s head isn’t in the game anymore. He was out struck by the inferior striker, in theory, and had no counters to the leg kick that Poirier was consistently hitting him with. Furthermore, in rematches, winners of the last Bout: tend to run away with the second, and have a win rate upwards of 75%.

Of course, McGregor has redeemed a loss before, against Nate Diaz, but the way in which he lost to Dustin makes the difference for me. He lost in his own realm, the striking. Against Diaz, he lost on the ground.

The confidence aspect also plays into this for Poirier, as he walks into this fight knowing that he can beat McGregor. I think that's a big plus for ‘The Diamond’.

Poirier also lands more while absorbing less on average than McGregor, which statistically is a big plus in veteran fights that play out on the feet. At pick’em odds I think Dustin holds the value. However, expect fans to get in on McGregor as we move closer to the date, causing a rise in value for Poirier.

If you’re backing Poirier, I say wait a few weeks for the casual money to come in, and then place your bets.

UFC 264: POIRIER VS MCGREGOR 3 - THE TRILOGY

MCGREGOR’S UFC BETTING LINES HISTORY (LAST 5)

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
(L) Conor McGregor (-333) vs. Dustin Poirier (+250)

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
(W) Conor McGregor (-333) vs. Donald Cerrone (+250)

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
(L) Conor McGregor (+162) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (-189)

UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor
(W) Conor McGregor (-149) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+130)

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
(W) Conor McGregor (-137) vs. Nate Diaz (+120)

POIRIER’S UFC BETTING LINES HISTORY (LAST 5)

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
(W) Dustin Poirier (+250) vs. Conor McGregor (-333)

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker
(W) Dustin Poirier (-250) vs. Dan Hooker (+200)

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
(L) Dustin Poirier (+350) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (-455)

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
(W) Dustin Poirier (+187) vs. Max Holloway (-227)

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
(W) Dustin Poirier (-161) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+130)

UFC 264: POIRIER VS. MCGREGOR 3 BREAKDOWN

This is the third fight between these two lightweight powerhouses, meaning that they’ve both had plenty of opportunities to adapt to the other.

Currently, the score is 1-1, with McGregor winning the first, and Poirier winning the second. Despite this, McGregor is by far the one with the most on the line in this fight, as two consecutive losses would be bad for his stock as a PVP draw.

McGregor’s biggest strength is his striking, which is why we almost always see him force his fights to take place standing. Out of the two, Poirier seems to have the larger toolbox, as he is able to get takedowns and throw strikes to various areas on his opponents. We saw his leg kicks to full effect against McGregor in his last outing.

At the same time, McGregor looked uncharacteristically one-sided at UFC 257, using only his hands against Poirier.

You’re only as good as your last one, and I think that has never been more important to underline than for this rubber match between Poirier and McGregor. Most times when we try to predict McGregor’s fights, we use his performances against Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, and even Nate Diaz as backing to validify the argument of his skill set still holding up. This is something I often catch myself doing.

We simply must remember that this game moves incredibly fast, and the same fights we’re using to rate McGregor’s skills are already half a decade behind us.

McGregor looked at Poirier like he’d discovered fire when he started firing the calf kicks, and had no answer for it. What’s to stop Poirier from doing the same thing in the third fight? Not much.

McGregor also doesn’t really kick anymore for some reason unknown, and therefore it's far easier for his opponents to anticipate where the strikes are coming from.

After getting tagged twice, Poirier had downloaded enough data to be able to cover up every time Conor entered the pocket with a 1-2 combination.

With all that said, McGregor can always pull a rabbit out of the hat.

I anticipate this fight to go to the fighter that utilizes the more well-rounded game plan. McGregor simply needs to stop treating this as a boxing match if he wants to win, and Poirier has the game plan laid out quite clearly for him.

All factors considered, I think Poirier takes the rubber match, and McGregor retires in the cage.

THE NOTORIOUS
CONOR MCGREGOR

Starting off his career in the UFC Featherweight division, McGregor quickly became renowned for his knockout ability. After tearing through the 145 lb division, McGregor would find himself next in line for a title shot against former Featherweight champion and P4P #1 Jose Aldo. Despite being a small underdog in the fight, McGregor became the new Featherweight champion in just 13 seconds, with a quick finish of Aldo. McGregor’s power was once again put on display.

During his run through the Featherweight division, McGregor and Dustin Poirier first crossed paths, with McGregor scoring an early first-round knockout over ‘The Diamond’. However, after beating Aldo, McGregor would leave the division for good.

MCGREGOR CAREER WINS

• 19 KO/TKO (86%)
• 1 Submission (5%)
• 2 Decisions (9%)

MCGREGOR CAREER LOSSES

• 1 KO/TKO (20%)
• 4 Submissions (80%)
• 0 Decisions (0%)

After becoming the first champion in UFC history to hold belts in two weight classes simultaneously, McGregor’s UFC career would be put on hold while the Irishman pursued boxing bouts with Floyd Mayweather and business ventures outside the cage.

In the span of becoming double champion in 2016 and up until now, McGregor would only fight three times for the UFC, including his most recent run-in with Dustin Poirier, which ended unfavourably for McGregor.

Conor is now set to fight a third time with Poirier at UFC 264, on July 10th.

MCGREGOR STATS

Standing 5’9’’ tall, the Irish McGregor is more or less the average height for his weight class. His reach of 74’’, however, is quite wide for his division, and has been a big factor of his success in the UFC. McGregor is 32 years old with a 22-5 record, and fights in the southpaw stance.

Striking wise, The Irishman lands 5.32 significant strikes every minute, whilst absorbing 4.54. He has a striking accuracy of 49% and a striking defense of 54%.

In the grappling department McGregor defends 67% of takedowns attempted on him, and rarely goes for takedowns himself.

Along with the UFC Lightweight Bout: on tap, the UFC 264 card from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada is expected to have other big names on tap too.

Listed below are the 12 expected fights, which are subject to change.

UFC 264 BETTING CARD

MAIN CARD

• Lightweight Bout: Dustin Poirier (-125) vs. Conor McGregor (+105)
• Welterweight Bout: Gilbert Burns (+135) vs. Stephen Thompson (-160)
• Heavyweight Bout: Tai Tuivasa (-145) vs. Greg Hardy (+120)
• Women's Bantamweight Bout: Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (+100)
• Bantamweight Bout: Sean O'Malley (-900) vs. Kris Moutinho (+600)

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Welterweight Bout: Carlos Condit (+165) vs. Max Griffin (-200)
• Welterweight Bout: Niko Price (+140) vs. Michel Pereira (-165)
• Featherweight Bout: Ilia Topuria (-250) vs. Ryan Hall (+195)
• Middleweight Bout: Dricus du Plessis (-120) vs. Trevin Giles (+100)

EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD

• Women's Flyweight Bout: Jessica Eye (-190) vs. Jennifer Maia (+160)
• Middleweight Bout: Omari Akhmedov (+140) vs. Brad Tavares (-165)
• Flyweight Bout: Jerome Rivera (+270) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-350)
• Middleweight Bout: Alen Amedovski (-125) vs. Hu Yaozong (+105)

Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM

VegasInsider Staff

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