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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:44 PM

UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Main Card Picks, Predictions

July 6, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert

The "Notorious" Conor McGregor returns to the UFC octagon this weekend for his long awaited rubber match with Dustin Poirier. The two last fought in January, where Poirier would be the one to walk away victorious.

In the co-main event fan-favorite Stephen Thompson takes on former title challenger Gilbert Burns in a welterweight bout scheduled for three rounds. Furthermore, fans will also get to witness up and coming prospect Sean O’Malley in action as he takes on UFC debutant Kris Moutinho on short notice.

UFC 264 main card is scheduled to begin at 10:00 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and ESPN PPV will be providing all the television coverage.

UFC 264 Best Bets

UFC 264 Popular Betting Resources

UFC 264 Main Card

  • Lightweight Bout: Dustin Poirier (-120) vs. Conor McGregor (+100)
  • Welterweight Bout: Gilbert Burns (+145) vs. Stephen Thompson (-175)
  • Heavyweight Bout: Tai Tuivasa (-135) vs. Greg Hardy (+110)
  • Women's Bantamweight Bout: Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (+100)
  • Bantamweight Bout: Sean O'Malley (-900) vs. Kris Moutinho (+600)

ESPN+ subscribers can get a discount on UFC 264 via ESPN PPV

UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Main Event

Lightweight Bout
Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 3

I’ll mainly base my prediction on what I saw in their most recent bout, as the first fight was so long ago and in another weight class.

What we saw in the most recent fight was a version of Poirier which was far better than McGregor. Conor is extremely dangerous from a distance, always has been, but he got taken down and leg kicked to hell by Poirier.

Rewatching the second fight, Conor McGregor did not understand he was losing. His corner didn’t address the amount of calf kicks he was absorbing. The advice given in between rounds was to keep the hands high when exiting the pocket. This is worrisome because McGregor used to be a very aware fighter with a high IQ. His boxing heavy approach tells me he himself mostly controls what he wants to train and how to prepare for fights, not his coach.

There was no game plan against Dustin, other than get a knockout inside 60 seconds, yet even that prediction faded out when we saw The Notorious get taken down inside half a minute by Poirier.

The toolbox has become narrow for McGregor. He shows nothing other than a jab and straight left. Poor game-planning, no well-roundedness, and no endurance, which is something we’re not used to seeing from Conor. He knocked out quickly once Poirier smelled the finish.

Prediction: Dustin Poirier (-120) def. Conor McGregor

UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Co-Main Event

Welterweight Bout
Stephen Thompson vs. Gilbert Burns

This seems like the striker versus grappler matchup at first, but when you dive into the stats it becomes apparent that Burns has fallen into a common grappler pitfall, which is falling in love with your hands.

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