UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Main Card Picks, Predictions

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

July 6, 2021

by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

The "Notorious" Conor McGregor returns to the UFC octagon this weekend for his long awaited rubber match with Dustin Poirier. The two last fought in January, where Poirier would be the one to walk away victorious.

In the co-main event fan-favorite Stephen Thompson takes on former title challenger Gilbert Burns in a welterweight bout scheduled for three rounds. Furthermore, fans will also get to witness up and coming prospect Sean O’Malley in action as he takes on UFC debutant Kris Moutinho on short notice.

UFC 264 main card is scheduled to begin at 10:00 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and ESPN PPV will be providing all the television coverage.

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UFC 264 Main Card

• Lightweight Bout: Dustin Poirier (-120) vs. Conor McGregor (+100)
• Welterweight Bout: Gilbert Burns (+145) vs. Stephen Thompson (-175)
• Heavyweight Bout: Tai Tuivasa (-135) vs. Greg Hardy (+110)
• Women's Bantamweight Bout: Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (+100)
• Bantamweight Bout: Sean O'Malley (-900) vs. Kris Moutinho (+600)

UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Main Event

Lightweight Bout
Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 3

I’ll mainly base my prediction on what I saw in their most recent bout, as the first fight was so long ago and in another weight class.

What we saw in the most recent fight was a version of Poirier which was far better than McGregor. Conor is extremely dangerous from a distance, always has been, but he got taken down and leg kicked to hell by Poirier.

Rewatching the second fight, Conor McGregor did not understand he was losing. His corner didn’t address the amount of calf kicks he was absorbing. The advice given in between rounds was to keep the hands high when exiting the pocket. This is worrisome because McGregor used to be a very aware fighter with a high IQ. His boxing heavy approach tells me he himself mostly controls what he wants to train and how to prepare for fights, not his coach.

There was no game plan against Dustin, other than get a knockout inside 60 seconds, yet even that prediction faded out when we saw The Notorious get taken down inside half a minute by Poirier.

The toolbox has become narrow for McGregor. He shows nothing other than a jab and straight left. Poor game-planning, no well-roundedness, and no endurance, which is something we’re not used to seeing from Conor. He knocked out quickly once Poirier smelled the finish.

Prediction: Dustin Poirier (-120) def. Conor McGregor

UFC 264: McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Co-Main Event

Welterweight Bout
Stephen Thompson vs. Gilbert Burns

This seems like the striker versus grappler matchup at first, but when you dive into the stats it becomes apparent that Burns has fallen into a common grappler pitfall, which is falling in love with your hands.

For a guy with the jiu-jitsu of Gilbert Burns, I reckon you should be going for takedowns constantly. Yet Burns likes his fights to play out mainly on the feet. This is very good for Stephen Thompson, because not many people can strike with Thompson for three rounds, and see his hand raised at the end.

Thompson has the most diverse array of strikes on the feet, and we just witnessed Burns getting melted by Usman on the feet. If this stays standing it’s a no-brainer. The only chance Burns has of winning is with a submission.

Wonderboy has a reach advantage of four inches and is very adept at remaining on his feet with a 78% takedown defense.

Prediction: Stephen Thompson (-175) def. Gilbert Burns

Heavyweight Bout
Greg Hardy vs. Tai Tuivasa

While Greg Hardy had a tough last fight, there’s nothing that indicates he is at the level of Tai Tuivasa.

Tuivasa initially started out his career well, by picking up three straight wins over decent opponents. He would then go on to lose three in a row to Junior Dos Santos, Blagoy Ivanov and Sergey Spivak, all fighters I consider inferior to Greg Hardy.

Hardy is very athletic for his size, and moves around well. The Prince of War has a five-inch reach advantage in this fight.

Hardy’s resume shows he knows how to deal with small guys, such as Jorgan De Castro and Ben Sosoli - and Tai Tuivasa.

Greg is good at moving around his opponent and picking his shots. Tuivasa is not very technical and looks for the big shot. The technician wins that fight.

Prediction: Greg Hardy (+110) def. Tai Tuivasa

UFC heavyweight Greg Hardy will be in action on Saturday and bettors can grab him as a short underdog. (AP)

Women's Bantamweight Bout
Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Aldana is a good boxer, but her inconsistency is apparent. She is 5-4 in the UFC.

Kunitskaya is a well-rounded fighter with good grappling and striking - the traits I consider Aldana’s kryptonite. Striking wise, Aldana is the better boxer, but as we saw in the second fight between Poirier and McGregor, boxing doesn’t win you MMA fights. On this level, the game is too evolved to win solely with your hands. Aldana doesn’t have the toolbox to compete against the top guys.

Kunitskaya gets hit very little in her fights, and is good at picking when to take a fight to the ground.

Aldana might get in some good shots at first, but once Kunitskaya drags the fight to the cage, it’s the beginning of the end for Aldana.

The boxer always loses in mixed martial arts. You need more tools to be the best.

Holly Holm showed us the gaping holes in Aldana’s wrestling defense. Kunitskaya can do the same.

Prediction: Yana Kunitskaya (+100) def. Irene Aldana

Bantamweight Bout
Sean O'Malley vs. Kris Moutinho

O’Malley’s initial opponent was Louis Smolka, which would’ve been a good test of Sean’s abilities. That said, we can’t get around that this fight is a mismatch on paper.

Moutinho is probably a game opponent who takes this very seriously, but the skill gap is just too wide against O’Malley.

Sean’s striking is nothing short of spectacular with one of the widest strike differentials in the entire UFC, across all weight divisions.

Moutinho’s only chance to win would be a hailmary submission. Unfortunately, he doesn’t possess very good submissions abilities, and usually wins by decision.

The only concern for O’Malley is if he vastly underestimates Kris on Saturday, and pays for it with a flash KO loss. However, in nine wins Moutinho has only managed to get the KO three times, so it’s not like knocking people out is his main shtick.

O’Malley keeps it on the feet and gets the first round finish, once again proving that he needs a higher level of opponent to take his career to the next stage.

Prediction: Sean O’Malley (-900) def. Kris Moutinho

Odds & Bouts Subject to Change - per BetMGM

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