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Apr 25, 2022

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Tuesday night with a pivotal Game 5 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies. Coverage begins from FedExForum in Memphis at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Grizzlies 117, Timberwolves 107

Best Bets

Grizzlies -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Predictions

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, Memphis briefly sustained that same lackluster pace with a mediocre start to this season, as the Grizzlies opened with a relatively pedestrian 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS skid, with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Memphis has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since that opening skid, considering the Grizzlies closed out the regular season with an impressive 47-16 SU and 42-20-1 ATS run, while tallying 117.4 OPPG and allowing just 108.1 DPPG across that stretch.

On the other hand, Minnesota posted a similarly disappointing start to the season, as the Timberwolves kicked things off with a lackluster 11-15 SU skid, while averaging just 107.7 OPPG during that timeframe.

Minnesota has admirably flipped the script since mid-December though, considering the Wolves enter Game 5 riding a sturdy 38-23 SU stretch, while posting lofty averages of 118.8 OPPG and 116.8 DPPG across that window.

I’ll back Memphis here, as the Grizzlies have yielded impressive records of 31-12 SU and 28-15 ATS at home this year, despite posting an ugly loss at FedExForum in Game 1 of this series (130-117), likely presenting an uphill battle for a Wolves’ squad that’s 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten road games.

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Odds

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Resources

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Analysis

  • SU: 49-38
  • ATS: 44-40-2
  • O/U: 52-34

After last year’s lackluster 23-49 SU showing, Minnesota initially kept the frustration train rolling with another lackluster to this season, as the Timberwolves kicked things off with a miserable 11-15 SU and ATS skid, with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Minnesota has played incredibly inspired basketball since that point, considering Minnesota enters Game 5 riding a surprisingly solid 38-23 SU and 34-25-2 ATS stretch, while ranking 11th in the league in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency across that window (1.102 OE, 1.080 DE).

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Analysis

  • SU: 58-28
  • ATS: 54-31-1
  • O/U: 45-40-1

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, the Grizzlies briefly flew under the radar with a 9-10 SU start to this season, which inevitably led to Memphis getting tagged as underdogs in seven-of-ten matchups to open December. However, Memphis quickly stole the spotlight with a trio of upset victories and posted a sturdy 7-3 SU record across that stretch.

Memphis has been scorching hot since that stretch though, considering the Grizzlies enter Tuesday’s Game 5 riding an impressive 49-18 SU and 44-22-1 ATS run, while racking up 117.3 OPPG and allowing just 108.2 DPPG during that timeframe.

The Grizzlies are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 matchups against Minnesota. (Getty Images)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Head-to-Head

The Grizzlies swept a three-game regular-season set against Minnesota last year, with the first and third matchups soaring over the total at a lofty average of 249.5 PPG, while their second meeting stayed under with a score of 120-108 (U 232).

However, Memphis and Minnesota split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with the first two matchups soaring over the total at an average of 238 PPG, while the ensuing two affairs stayed under at 228.5 PPG.

The Wolves quickly gained an edge in this series with a commanding 130-117 victory in Game 1 (O 238), which the Grizzlies promptly countered with a dominant win of their own in Game 2 (124-96, U 239.5).

The following two matchups unfolded much differently though, as the Wolves jumped out to an enormous 18-point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, only to have Memphis completely erase that deficit and win the contest by a comfortable nine-point margin (104-95, U 238). However, Minnesota bounced back with a narrow 119-118 victory at home in Game 4 (O 232), evening this series at two games apiece.

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Key Players to Watch

  • MIN: Karl-Anthony Towns - C (24.6 PPG, 9.8 REB, 3.6 AST)
  • MIN: Anthony Edwards - SG (21.3 PPG, 4.8 REB, 3.8 AST)
  • MEM: Ja Morant - PG (27.4 PPG, 5.7 REB, 6.7 AST)
  • MEM: Desmond Bane - SF (18.2 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.7 AST)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Conclusion

After evening the series with a thrilling home victory in Game 4 this past Saturday (W, 119-118), the Wolves hit the road for Tuesday’s fifth matchup as 6.5-point underdogs against the Grizzlies at FedExForum, which is roughly the same number Memphis was favored by in their previous two home matchups of this series.

I’ll back Memphis here, as Minnesota has posted underwhelming records of 21-22 SU and 21-21-1 ATS on the road this year, despite pulling off an impressive 130-117 victory in Game 1 of this series, setting the stage for a difficult task in Game 5 against a Grizzlies squad that’s 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Trends

  • The Wolves are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The Grizzlies are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine Grizzlies' games.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the last ten Wolves' games.
  • The Wolves are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 matchups against Memphis.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six matchups between Memphis and Minnesota.
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