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Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
11 minute read

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume Saturday mid-afternoon with a pivotal third matchup between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks. Coverage begins from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Bucks 105, Celtics 102

Best Bets

Under 213 (-110) at Caesars

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with a mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-January, considering the Celtics have allowed just 103.3 DPPG across their latest 41-12 SU run, which includes 109 DPPG across their four-game sweep of Brooklyn in the previous round – and 93.5 DPPG to Milwaukee in the first two matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Milwaukee posted a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Bucks kicked things off with a lackluster 6-8 SU and ATS skid, with four of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Milwaukee has quietly dominated since that brief opening skid, considering the Bucks have yielded lofty averages of 116.4 OPPG and 111.7 DPPG across their latest 51-25 SU stretch, despite averaging just 105.7 OPPG across their seven postseason matchups.

I’ll take the under here, as Games 1 and 2 of this series stayed well under at an average of 192.5 PPG, and while the total for Friday’s contest has fallen a few notches to OU 213, Game 3 should ultimately be another hard-fought defensive battle between a Bucks squad that’s surrendered 100 PTS or less in five-of-seven playoff matchups (96.3 DPPG), and a Celtics squad that’s allowing just 103.8 DPPG since the conclusion of the regular season.

Updated on 04/19/2024
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Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Resources

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 56-32
  • ATS: 49-38-1
  • O/U: 42-44-2

After last year’s mediocre 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly lackluster start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a head-scratching 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Friday’s contest riding a red-hot 41-12 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 28 of those contests (113.3 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 22 of them (103.3 DPPG).

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 56-33
  • ATS: 43-46
  • O/U: 43-46

After finishing with the best record in the East in two of the last three seasons, Milwaukee’s rough start was somewhat of a head-scratcher, considering the Bucks’ compiled a record of 162-65 SU across the previous three regular seasons, only to open this season with a lackluster 6-8 SU skid.

Milwaukee has played excellent, when healthy, since mid-November though, considering the Bucks enter Friday’s Game 3 riding a sturdy 51-25 SU stretch, with a huge chunk of those losses coming in the absence of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (8).

The total has gone UNDER in seven straight Bucks' games. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Head-to-Head

The Celtics won two of three regular-season matchups against Milwaukee last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at an average of 239.7 PPG.

However, Boston and Milwaukee split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with three of those matchups cruising over the total at an average of 237.7 PPG, while one contest stayed under with a score of 117-103 (U 223).

Far more defense was played in the opening matchups of series though, with each squad respectively earning a commanding, low-scoring victory across Games 1 and 2 at TD Garden (192.5 PPG).

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Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF (29.9 PPG, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST)
  • MIL: Jrue Holiday - PG (18.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 6.8 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Conclusion

After bouncing back with a double-digit victory of their own in Game 2 this past Tuesday (W, 109-86), the Celtics hit the road for Friday’s third matchup as three-point underdogs against the Bucks at Fiserv Forum, marking the first time Milwaukee has been favored in this series.

I’ll take the under here, as the first two matchups of this series stayed comfortably under the total at an average of 192.5 PPG, and Game 3 should be no different, considering the Bucks have allowed just 96.3 DPPG across their seven postseason contests, while the Celtics have surrendered 103.8 DPPG across six playoff matchups.

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in seven straight Bucks' games.
  • The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games.
  • The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Celtics' games.
  • The Bucks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine matchups against Boston.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 11 matchups between Boston and Milwaukee.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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