Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Western Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Tuesday night with a critical Game 5 showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns. Coverage begins from Footprint Center in Phoenix at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Updated on 06/23/2024
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Score Prediction

Suns 116, Mavericks 104

Best Bets

Suns -6 (-110) at Caesars

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Predictions

After finishing second in the West with a record of 51-21 SU last year, Phoenix kept that same train rolling with another dominant start to this season, as the Suns opened with a red-hot 27-8 SU and 18-17 ATS run, with 18 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Despite Chris Paul’s 15-game absence down the homestretch, the Suns carried that same momentum all the way through the regular-season finish line, considering Phoenix boasts records of 43-14 SU and 32-25 ATS across its last 57 games, while averaging 116.1 OPPG and allowing just 109.5 DPPG during that timeframe.

On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks enter Game 5 riding an impressive 42-16 SU and 38-20 ATS stretch, while allowing just 104.1 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe – despite surrendering 111.3 DPPG to Phoenix across the first four matchups of this series.

I’ll back Phoenix here, as the Suns won their first two home matchups of this series by an average margin of 13.5 PPG, and while Dallas seemed to effortlessly bounce back in Games 3 and 4, I still expect an imposing performance from a Suns squad that’s 4-1 SU and ATS at home this postseason.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Resources

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 58-34
  • ATS: 53-38-1
  • O/U: 35-56-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas seemed destined for a similar fate during the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas flipped the script by playing excellent defense throughout the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Tuesday’s contest riding an impressive 42-16 SU run, despite averaging just 109.5 OPPG during that timeframe.

Phoenix Suns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 70-22
  • ATS: 50-42
  • O/U: 46-45-1

After battling Utah for the top spot in the conference all the way through the final day of last year’s regular season (51-21 SU), Phoenix was surprisingly rusty to start the year, as the Suns dropped three-of-four contests out of the gate, while averaging just 106.3 OPPG across that brief stretch.

The Suns clearly just needed a few weeks to settle into a rhythm though, considering Phoenix boasts records of 69-19 SU and 49-39 ATS since that opening skid, while ranking fifth in the league in scoring and third in offensive efficiency (114.6 OPPG, 1.120 OE); and on the flipside, ranking tenth in points allowed and third in defensive efficiency (107.5 DPPG, 1.050 DE).

The Mavericks are 0-7 SU in their last seven road games against Phoenix. (Getty Images)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Head-to-Head

The Suns swept a three-game regular-season set against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 213.7 PPG.

Phoenix also went 3-0 SU against Dallas this season, with two matchups staying under the total at an average of 206.5 PPG, while the other barely went over with a score of 112-104 (O 212); however, this year’s regular-season results should be taken with a grain of salt, considering Luka Doncic was sidelined for two of those affairs.

Doncic participated in the first four matchups of this series though, with Games 1 and 2 resulting in surprisingly high-scoring wins for Phoenix (236.5 PPG), while Games 3 and 4 resulted in hard-fought defensive battles that played heavily towards the strengths of Dallas (204.5 PPG).

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Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
  • DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • PHX: Devin Booker - SG (26.8 PPG, 5 REB, 4.8 AST)
  • PHX: Chris Paul - PG (14.7 PPG, 4.4 REB, 10.8 AST)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Conclusion

After evening the series with a pair of commanding home victories in Games 3 and 4, the Mavericks hit the road for Tuesday’s fifth contest as six-point underdogs against the Suns at Footprint Center, which is roughly the same number Phoenix was favored by in the first two matchups of this series (PHX -6).

I’ll back the Suns here, as the pace of this series has been all over the place through the first four matchups, with Games 1 and 2 resulting in a pair of particularly high-scoring victories for Phoenix, while Games 3 and 4 resulted in a pair of hard-fought defensive battles in favor of Dallas; however, the Suns still strike me as the far superior squad in this series, and at the very least, I expect them to handle business at home in Games 5 and 7.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Suns are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine Suns' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven Mavericks' games.
  • The Suns are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 matchups against Dallas.
  • The Mavericks are 0-7 SU in their last seven road games against Phoenix.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last 12 matchups between Dallas and Phoenix.

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