Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:45 AM

Colgate vs. Arkansas Predictions, Odds, Preview


Mar. 19, 2021
Jonathan Willis
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Colgate vs. Arkansas Predictions

This is the game with the highest total in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. It’s rare to find a college basketball game with a total in the 160s, but the way that Colgate and Arkansas play basketball makes that a must here.

Only one other first-round game has a total in the 150s, indicating just how high-scoring this game is expected to be in comparison to others. Along those lines, the OVER is the play here. Colgate ranks 25th in adjusted tempo, and this team loves to fire away. The Raiders scored at least 73 points in all 15 games this season, and they finished with at least 80 points in 10 of those tilts.

Arkansas is likely going to be too much for Colgate though. The Raiders only played Patriot League games this season, and the conference wasn’t that strong. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks knocked off multiple quality opponents in both non-conference and SEC play.

  • Score Prediction: Arkansas 89 Colgate 75
  • Best Bets - Side: Arkansas -8.5
  • Best Bets - Total: OVER 161.5

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Colgate vs. Arkansas Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Arkansas -8.5
  • Total: 161.5
  • Money-Line: Arkansas -500 Colgate +400

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

Odds to Win South Region

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Friday's Early Action - Mar. 19
7
vs.
10
3
vs.
14
1
vs.
16
6
vs.
11
2
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15
1
vs.
16
8
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9
5
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12

Handicapping Colgate vs. Arkansas

The Raiders went 14-1 and earned the Patriot League’s automatic bid by blasting all three of their opponents in the conference tournament. Colgate’s only loss came back on January 3, when the Raiders lost the second game of a back-to-back against Army by two points.

They avenged that loss thrice by beating the Black Knights by 44, 10 and nine points. Arkansas was the hottest team in the SEC until its loss to LSU in the conference tournament semifinals. The Razorbacks overcame a 2-4 start in SEC play to reel off 12 straight victories against conference opponents.

During that stretch, they knocked off Florida, Alabama, and LSU in consecutive games.

  • Region: South
  • Matchup: 3 vs. 14
  • Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Date: Mar. 19, 2021
  • TV-Time: TruTV - 12:45 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Colgate Raiders

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Colgate went 10-5 ATS during the season. The Raiders didn’t play a neutral site game, as they only played their conference schedule and didn’t start their season until January.

They were favored in every game this year. Colgate was a double-digit favorite in nine of its last 11 games, so this is unfamiliar territory for the Raiders. Five of their last seven games have gone OVER the total.

Seed: 14
Conference: Patriot
Bid: Auto

  • SU: 13-1
  • ATS: 9-5
  • O/U: 7-7
  • Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U
  • Notable Wins: None
  • PS/G: 86.3 (2nd)
  • PA/G: 68.6 (125th)
  • Off Rtg: 118.6 (3rd)
  • Def Rtg: 94.2 (45th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas was one of the top teams to wager on all season long. The Razorbacks went 17-9-1 ATS, and they were excellent in Fayetteville. This team went 16-1 SU and 11-6-1 ATS at home.

Few teams were more consistent for bettors over the last two months. Arkansas went 10-3 ATS over its last 13 games of the season. The UNDER has cashed in five of the Razorbacks’ last seven games.

Seed: 3
Conference: SEC
Bid: At-large

  • SU: 22-6
  • ATS: 17-11-1
  • O/U: 13-16
  • Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Missouri (x2), Florida, Alabama, LSU
  • PS/G: 82.4 (7th)
  • PA/G: 70.7 (192nd)
  • Off Rtg: 108.9 (49th)
  • Def Rtg: 93.4 (29th)

First Round Predictions

Friday's Late Action - Mar. 19
4
vs.
13
8
vs.
9
2
vs.
15
4
vs.
13
7
vs.
10
6
vs.
11
3
vs.
14
5
vs.
12

Key Players to Watch

The Raiders have four players that are averaging double figures. Colgate’s leading scorer is Jordan Burns. Burns is averaging 17.0 PPG and leads the team with 5.4 APG and 1.6 SPG too. He is hitting 41.5% of his three-point attempts as the second-most reliable perimeter shooter on the team.

Jack Ferguson is the most efficient shooter on Colgate. Ferguson is a member of the rare 50/50/90 club, hitting over 50% of his field goals and threes along with 90% of his free throws.

The Razorbacks aren’t a great perimeter shooting team. Top scorer Moses Moody is the only solid option in this regard as he is knocking down 37.9% of his threes while averaging 17.4 PPG. Moody was second on the team in rebounding (5.9 RPG), and the freshman guard is seen as a lottery pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.

Justin Smith is making 57.5% of his two-pointers and averages 13.0 PPG. Smith leads Arkansas in rebounding (6.9 RPG), and he is one of the best players at collecting offensive boards despite checking in at 6’7.

  • COLG - Jordan Burns (17 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.3 APG)
  • COLG - Jack Ferguson (12.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
  • ARK - Moses Moody (17.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG)
  • ARK - J.D. Notae (13.3 PPG)

March Madness Records & Trends

Colgate Raiders

  • All-Time Record: 0-3
  • Last Appearance: 2019
  • Deepest Run: First Round (2019)

-- Colgate has lost three straight NCAA Tournament games.
-- Colgate has covered the spread in five of its last six games when playing away from home.
-- Colgate has gone OVER the point total in five of its last seven games.
-- Colgate has covered the spread in six of its last eight games. 

Arkansas Razorbacks

  • All-Time Record: 42-32
  • Last Appearance: 2018
  • Deepest Run: Champion (1994)

-- Arkansas has lost nine of its last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Arkansas has been eliminated by UNC in three of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Arkansas has covered the spread in eight of its last 10 games.
-- Arkansas has scored 70 points or more in nine straight games.
-- Arkansas has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last seven games.

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