Winthrop vs. Villanova Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Mar. 19, 2021

Jonathan Willis
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Winthrop vs. Villanova Predictions

There’s a real chance that Jay Wright and Villanova are one and done in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats have won two national championships in the past five seasons, but they aren’t as strong this year and lost star guard Collin Gillespie at the tail end of the regular season.

Gillespie was instrumental to this team’s success, so the Winthrop Eagles are a popular upset pick. Without Gillespie, Villanova’s offense has not had the same bite.

The Wildcats did not look sharp against either Providence or Georgetown, losing both of those games by a single possession. That has Winthrop poised to pull off a potential upset.

The Eagles played solid defense on their way to going 23-1 and winning the Big South Conference. They aren’t too efficient on offense though, leading to somewhat low-scoring games.

• Score Prediction: Winthrop 71 Villanova 68
• Best Bets - Side: Winthrop +6.5
• Best Bets - Total: UNDER 139.5

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Winthrop vs. Villanova Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Villanova -6.5
• Total: 139.5
• Money-Line: Villanova -250 Winthrop +210

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Winthrop 150/1
• Villanova 40/1

Odds to Win South Region

• Winthrop 66/1
• Villanova 10/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Friday's Early Action - Mar. 19 7 vs. 10 3 vs. 14 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 2 vs. 15 1 vs. 16 8 vs. 9 5 vs. 12

Handicapping Winthrop vs. Villanova

Winthrop only played three non-conference games this season. The Eagles took down UNC Greensboro, Little Rock, and Furman in December before moving to Big South play. They largely dominated their opponents, but Campbell stayed within a point of them on the road and UNC Asheville kept Winthrop from going unbeaten with a 57-55 win on January 29.

The Eagles shredded the competition on their way to an automatic bid in the NCAA Tournament. They beat High Point by 29 points, Longwood by 21 points, and Campbell by 27 points to win the Big South. However, this team’s only quality win was the victory over UNC Greensboro in the season opener.

Villanova got off to a great start for the first two months. The Wildcats were 11-1 overall and 6-0 in conference play. Their lone loss was in overtime to Virginia Tech, and they had knocked off Texas just before Big East play got underway.

They struggled the rest of the way though. Nova went 5-5 over its last 10 games and dropped three of its last four to close out the regular season.

• Region: South
• Matchup: 5 vs. 12
• Venue: Indiana Farmers Coliseum
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 19, 2021
• TV-Time: TNT - 9:57 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Winthrop Eagles

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Oddsmakers caught on quickly to just how good Winthrop was this season. The Eagles went 7-1 ATS through their first eight games before failing to cover eight times in a nine-game stretch. Winthrop had eight straight games finish OVER the total at the beginning of the year.

Seed: 12
Conference: Big South
Bid: Auto

• SU: 23-1
• ATS: 13-11
• O/U: 11-12-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS, 0-4-1 O/U
• Notable Wins: UNC-Greensboro

• PS/G: 79.5 (30th)
• PA/G: 66.8 (78th)
• Off Rtg: 109.3 (46th)
• Def Rtg: 91.8 (16th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Villanova Wildcats

Villanova was favored in every game this season. The Wildcats have received a lot of respect from the oddsmakers, but they stumbled repeatedly down the stretch. They went 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Additionally, four of their last six games went UNDER the total.

Seed: 5
Conference: Big East
Bid: At-large

• SU: 16-6
• ATS: 12-10
• O/U: 12-10

• Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U
• Notable Wins: Virginia Tech, Texas, Seton Hall (x2), UConn, Creighton

• PS/G: 75.5 (74th)
• PA/G: 67.1 (88th)
• Off Rtg: 113.4 (12th)
• Def Rtg: 100.8 (189th)

First Round Predictions

Friday's Late Action - Mar. 19 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 2 vs. 15 4 vs. 13 7 vs. 10 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 5 vs. 12

Key Players to Watch

Chandler Vaudrin is the key to everything for Winthrop. The senior is having a great final year at the school, leading the team with 12.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 6.9 APG. He is knocking down 48.0% of his field goals too, and he also leads the Eagles in steals.

This isn’t a great three-point shooting team. Josh Corbin is the only Winthrop player shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc, and the team as a whole is making just 35.3% of its treys.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will need to have a strong game if Nova are to survive and advance. Robinson-Earl leads the Wildcats with 15.7 PPG and 8.3 RPG, and he is hitting 49.3% of his field goals. However, he is shooting just 28.4% from beyond the arc.

Fellow forward Jermaine Samuels will be asked to create a lot too with Gillespie out. Samuels is averaging 11.8 PPG and 6.3 RPG, and he is knocking down 40.3% of his threes. He scored 20 points in each of Nova’s last two games.

• WIN - Chandler Vaudrin (12.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.9 APG)
• WIN - Charles Falden (10.1 PPG)

• NOVA - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG)
• NOVA - Jermaine Samuels (11.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG)

March Madness Records & Trends

Winthrop Eagles

• All-Time Record: 1-10
• Last Appearance: 2017
• Deepest Run: Second Round (2007)

-- Winthrop has lost 10 of its last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Winthrop has been eliminated by a school seeded No. 4 or lower in eight of its last 10 NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Winthrop has covered the spread in three straight games when playing as the underdog.
-- Winthrop has covered the spread in five of its last seven games.
-- Winthrop has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six games. 

Villanova Wildcats

• All-Time Record: 65-37
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Champion (2018)

-- AVillanova has won the National Championship in two of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Villanova has won 15 of its last 17 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Villanova has been eliminated by a Big Ten school in two straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Villanova has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.
-- Villanova has gone UNDER in four of its last six games.

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