Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:45 AM

Utah State vs. Texas Tech Predictions, Odds, Preview


Mar. 19, 2021

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Utah State vs. Texas Tech Predictions

The Utah State Aggies and Texas Tech Red Raiders hook up at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind. on Friday at 1:45 p.m. to kick off Midwest Region play in the Field of 64. They game will be televised on TBS.

A lot of fans forget that Texas Tech was just a hair away from winning the national championship in 2019, the last time a crown was handed out after COVID wiped out the 2020 tournament. The Red Raiders fell to Virginia in overtime in Minneapolis, losing 85-77. They're looking to get back to the Final Four, but they have a much tougher road.

Utah State won 20 games this season, but they came up short in the Mountain West title game against San Diego State, 68-57. They did enough to secure a much-deserved at-large bid. If USU does anything particularly well it's rebounding the ball, ranking seventh with 37.8 RPG. They're also 27th in blocked shots, averaging 4.6 per game. So the Aggies have the size and strength to hang with anyone.

Texas Tech made an early exit against Texas in the Big 12 tourney, falling 67-66 to the rival Longhorns while failing to cover as 1.5-point favorites. They are 3-1 ATS in the past four as a favorite, however. The Red Raiders have struggled in the later part of the season by going 3-5 SU/ATS across the final eight games. Texas Tech will have their hands full with a good Utah State side, looking to write a story similar to Texas Tech's last time in the Big Dance.

  • Score Prediction: Utah State 69 Texas Tech 66
  • Best Bets - Side: Utah State +4.5
  • Best Bets - Total: OVER 131.5

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Utah State vs. Texas Tech Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Texas Tech -4.5
  • Total: 131.5
  • Money-Line: Texas Tech -210 Utah State +180

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

Odds to Win South Regional

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Friday's Early Action - Mar. 19
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Handicapping Utah State vs. Texas Tech

The Aggies have won six of their past seven games by using a slow, methodical style on offense with a combination of a lockdown defensive style for great success. Utah State lost to fellow MWC NCAA Tournament team San Diego State last time out, but they went 2-1 SU/ATS against them this season. The only other NCAA Tournament team they faced this season was BYU, falling in Logan by a 67-64 score.

The Red Raiders have faced plenty of NCAA Tournament teams in the ultra-competitive Big 12, and had an ambitious non-conference schedule too. Texas Tech went 6-9 SU and just 2-13 ATS in games against teams in the NCAA Tournament field this season.

It is going to be an interesting to see if the Red Raiders can continue their postseason success. Head coach Chris Beard has won eight of his 10 NCAA Tournament games since taking over in Lubbock, and that mark across the past two Big Dances is the best winning percentage in the nation during the span.

I like Utah State for the upset, but recent history by TTU (as well as Utah State's recent struggles in the first round) make it a risky play. The Aggies have lost in the first round in seven consecutive tries.

  • Region: South
  • Matchup: 6 vs. 11
  • Venue: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
  • Location: Bloomington, Indiana
  • Date: Mar. 19, 2021
  • TV-Time: TNT - 1:45 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Utah State Aggies

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Utah State is a great rebounding team, as mentioned above. They have posted the second-best rebound margin in the nation, pulling down 10.3 more rebounds per game than their opponents.

The Aggies are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games against winning teams, while going 2-5 ATS in the past seven following a straight-up loss. However, they have covered five of the past six neutral-site games this season, an important stat.

The UNDER has connected in each of the past five games for USU after a 4-0 OVER run for the Aggies. It has been a season of total runs for Utah State, and right now they're on the UNDER tip. The UNDER is also 6-2 across their past eight NCAA Tournament games, while going 5-2 in their past seven neutral-site contests. Again, the latter is all this season, including 5-0 in the past five.

Seed: 11
Conference: Mountain West
Bid: At-large

  • SU: 20-8
  • ATS: 16-11
  • O/U: 11-16
  • Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 0-5 O/U
  • Notable Wins: San Diego State (x2), Colorado State
  • PS/G: 73.3 (120th)
  • PA/G: 62.2 (15th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.4 (106th)
  • Def Rtg: 89.5 (8th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech has covered just six of its past 22 games overall, and they're a dismal 5-13 ATS across the past 18 games as a favorite. In addition, they have covered just five times in the previous 21 against teams with a winning overall record.

Yes, Texas Tech has had a lot of recent NCAA Tournament success under Beard. They're 5-1 ATS across the past six games in the Big Dance, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven NCAA Tournament games. However, TTU is just 1-5 ATS in the past six neutral-site appearances.

As far as the totals, the UNDER is 4-0 in Texas Tech's past four as a favorite, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five games overall. The UNDER is the predominant trend in the NCAA Tournament, too, going 5-2 in the past seven in the Big Dance. The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, too.

Seed: 6
Conference: Big 12
Bid: At-large

  • SU: 17-10
  • ATS: 10-17
  • O/U: 12-15
  • Current Form (Last 5): 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Abilene Christian, Oklahoma (x2), Texas (x2), LSU
  • PS/G: 73 (126th)
  • PA/G: 63.4 (29th)
  • Off Rtg: 108 (64th)
  • Def Rtg: 93.8 (32nd)

First Round Predictions

Friday's Late Action - Mar. 19
4
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13
8
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9
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4
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7
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6
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Key Players to Watch

The Aggies had just three teams notching 10 or more points per game during the regular season. Neemias Queta nearly averaged a double-double with 14.7 PPG and 9.9 RPG during the regular season. The 7-footer has been consistent going for exactly 18 points in each of the past three, and has three or more blocked shots in five straight games.

It was all about Mac McClung for the Red Raiders, going for 16.1 PPG in the regular season. He was an impressive 81.5% from the free-throw line, too, so the ball will be in his hands in close games in the NCAA Tournament as long as they're alive. Kevin McCullar and Marcos Santos-Silva will try to keep pace with the USU rebounders. McCullar pulled down 6.2 RPG in the regular season, with MSS going for 6.4 RPG to lead the team.

  • UTST - Neemias Queta (15.1 PPG, 10 RPG)
  • UTST - Justin Bean (11.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG)
  • TT - Mac McClung (15.7 PPG)
  • TT - Terrence Shannon (12.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG)

Head-to-Head - Utah State vs. Texas Tech

The last time these teams player, it was also on a neutral floor back on Nov. 23, 2016 at the Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya in Mexico in Cancun. The Red Raiders crushed the Aggies by a 75-51 score as seven-point favorites.

March Madness Records & Trends

Utah State Aggies

  • All-Time Record: 6-23
  • Last Appearance: 2019
  • Deepest Run: Elite Eight (1970)

-- Utah State has lost 17 of its lasy 18 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Utah State has failed to reach the Sweet 16 in 16 straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Utah State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games when playing as the underdog.
-- Utah State has gone UNDER the point total in five straight games.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

  • All-Time Record: 16-18
  • Last Appearance: 2019
  • Deepest Run: Final Runner-up (2019)

-- Texas Tech has won eight of its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Texas Tech has reached the Sweet 16 in four of its last eight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Texas Tech has ben eliminated by a school seeded No. 1 in three of its last six NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Texas Tech has failed to cover the spread in three straight games when playing on a neutral court.
-- Texas Tech has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last 10 games.
-- Texas Tech has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last seven games.

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