Last Updated Oct 26, 2022, 8:25 AM

Morehead State vs. West Virginia Predictions, Odds, Preview


Mar. 19, 2021
Jonathan Willis
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Morehead State vs. West Virginia Predictions

West Virginia had a relatively quiet season for a No. 3 seed. The Mountaineers were never the best team in the Big 12, and they didn’t put up some of the gaudy defensive stats we’ve seen from Bob Huggins’ teams in the past.

They backed off pressing with their guards and instead focused on offense, leading to WVU ranking 11 th in offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy.

That should pay off against the Morehead State Eagles on Friday night. The Eagles were run off the court by the only four top 100 teams they played all season. Morehead State lost each of those games by at least 15 points, so betting West Virginia as a sizable favorite is the right move here.

UNDER feels like the right side too. Morehead State was known for its defense, but the Eagles were extremely turnover prone on the offensive end (332 nd in turnover rate). The Mountaineers can take advantage of those mistakes and force more miscues.

  • Score Prediction: West Virginia 73 Morehead State 55
  • Best Bets - Side: West Virginia -13
  • Best Bets - Total: UNDER 137.5

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Morehead State vs. West Virginia Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: West Virginia -13
  • Total: 137.5
  • Money-Line: West Virginia -900 Morehead State +600

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

Odds to Win Midwest Region

  • Morehead State 80/1
  • West Virginia 6/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Friday's Early Action - Mar. 19
7
vs.
10
3
vs.
14
1
vs.
16
6
vs.
11
2
vs.
15
1
vs.
16
8
vs.
9
5
vs.
12

Handicapping Morehead State vs. West Virginia

The Eagles did not fare well in non-conference play. Morehead State lost by over 30 points to both Kentucky and Ohio State and this team was smashed by Richmond and Clemson too.

Morehead State was the second-best team in the Ohio Valley Conference. The Eagles strung together 12 straight wins before falling to powerhouse Belmont in mid-February.

They responded by winning four games to end the regular season, beating Belmont in overtime in the finale, and then they survived a scare from Eastern Kentucky to beat Belmont once again in the OVC Championship Game.

West Virginia scored some nice victories over mid-major teams like North Texas, Richmond, VCU, and Western Kentucky before starting Big 12 play. The Mountaineers didn’t look hot at the start of conference action, yet they surged over the second half and knocked off Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech (twice). They fell to Oklahoma State in their regular season finale and again in the Big 12 quarterfinals though.

  • Region: Midwest
  • Matchup: 3 vs. 14
  • Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Date: Mar. 19, 2021
  • TV-Time: TruTV - 9:50 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Morehead State

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The Eagles haven’t taken the court in two weeks. Morehead State overcame the odds as a seven-point underdog to beat Belmont in the OVC Championship Game.

The oddsmakers undervalued this team all year, leading to Morehead State posting a 19-9 ATS record. We saw the under cash in 10 of the Eagles’ first 11 games before evening out over the last two months.

Seed: 14
Conference: OVC
Bid: Auto

  • SU: 23-7
  • ATS: 19-9
  • O/U: 10-18
  • Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Belmont (x2)
  • PS/G: 68.8 (243rd)
  • PA/G: 63.4 (27th)
  • Off Rtg: 101.6 (183rd)
  • Def Rtg: 93.6 (30th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia finished the regular season with a sub-.500 ATS mark. The Mountaineers failed to cover their last four games, losing twice as an outright favorite to Oklahoma State too. The over is 13-4 in WVU’s last 17 games.

Seed: 3
Conference: Big 12
Bid: At-large

  • SU: 18-9
  • ATS: 13-14
  • O/U: 18-9
  • Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U
  • Notable Wins: VCU, Western Kentucky, North Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech (x2), Kansas, Texas
  • PS/G: 77.3 (49th)
  • PA/G: 72.1 (230th)
  • Off Rtg: 107.8 (69th)
  • Def Rtg: 100.6 (185th)

First Round Predictions

Friday's Late Action - Mar. 19
4
vs.
13
8
vs.
9
2
vs.
15
4
vs.
13
7
vs.
10
6
vs.
11
3
vs.
14
5
vs.
12

Key Players to Watch

Miles McBride had a breakout year for West Virginia. McBride stepped up after Oscar Tshiebwe transferred after 10 games, and he is the Mountaineers’ leading scorer (15.4 PPG) and top distributor (4.7 APG). He is making 39.2% of his three-pointers this season.

Junior forward Derek Culver has been sharp in this offense. Culver is second on the team with 14.6 PPG and leads the way with 9.8 RPG. He does a good job of getting to the free throw line and getting opponents in foul trouble.

Johni Broome has been the key to Morehead State’s success this season. Broome is a great weapon down low for a freshman, finishing tops in points (13.9 PPG), rebounds (9.0 RPG), and blocks (1.8 BPG). He is making 57.6% of his field goals.

  • MORE - Johni Broome (13.9 PPG, 9 RPG)
  • MORE - DeVon Cooper (12.2 PPG, 5 RPG)
  • WVU - Miles McBride (15.4 PPG, 4.7 APG)
  • WVU - Derek Culver (14.6 PPG, 9.8 RPG)

Head-to-Head - Morehead State vs. West Virginia

This will be the fourth meeting between these two schools. West Virginia has hammered Morehead State in each of the previous three games. The Mountaineers won by 13 points in 1980 and 1981 before beating the Eagles 83-48 back in 2011.

March Madness Records & Trends

Morehead State Eagles

  • All-Time Record: 6-8
  • Last Appearance: 2011
  • Deepest Run: Third Round (2011)

-- Morehead State has faced Louisville in four of its last eight NCAA Tournament games, going 1-3 vs. them.
-- Morehead State has won its first game in five of its last seven NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Morehead State has covered the spread in 12 of its last 15 games when playing as the underdog.
-- Morehead State has covered the spread in three of its last four games when playing on a neutral court.  

West Virginia Mountaineers

  • All-Time Record: 31-29
  • Last Appearance: 2018
  • Deepest Run: Final Four (2010) - also 1959 Final Runner-up

-- West Virginia has been eliminated in the Sweet 16 in three of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- West Virginia has lost its first game in two of its last five NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- West Virginia has lost by a double-digit point total in four of its last five NCAA Tournament games in which they are eliminated.
-- West Virginia has failed to cover the spread in four straight games.
-- West Virginia has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 13 games.

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