Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 10:36 AM

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions, Odds, Picks

Dec. 19, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

Week 15 NFL Picks & Predictions

Games Scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET

An AFC South battle sees the Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Houston Texans. The divisional game is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

Score Prediction

Texans, Jaguars 17

Best Bets

Texans +5 (-110) at DraftKings

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions

The worst two teams in the AFC are Houston and Jacksonville. The Texans and Jaguars are both set to pick in the top three of the 2022 NFL Draft, and the loser of Sunday’s game could finish behind Detroit if the Lions win once more.

In Week 1, Houston hammered Jacksonville. The Texans jumped on the Jaguars early in the game, and they put together their best offensive performance of the season. They have been the worst offense in the NFL since that point with no more than 22 points in any of their last 12 games. Jacksonville’s offense has taken a big step back since the bye week though, so Houston can win a low-scoring game.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC South
  • Date: Sunday, December 19, 2021
  • Venue: TIAA Bank Field
  • Location: Jacksonville, Florida
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

Week 15 NFL Picks & Predictions

Games Scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET through 8:20 p.m. ET

Houston Texans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-11
  • ATS: 5-8
  • O/U: 5-8
  • ATS - Away: 2-4

Davis Mills wasn’t bad in his first start since Halloween last week against Seattle. Mills completed 33 of 49 passes for 331 yards with a touchdown. He is not a mobile threat, but Mills has been a better passer than Tyrod Taylor since the veteran returned from injury.

Houston has one star receiver in Brandin Cooks. The veteran has 73 receptions for 843 yards and three touchdowns on the year, and no one else on the Texans has more than 300 receiving yards. Nico Collins could be in line for another nice outing though after being targeted 10 times last Sunday.

This run game has been nonexistent. There is no one with more than 180 rushing yards on the roster, and Houston is averaging 3.3 YPC. Laremy Tunsil and Marcus Cannon are both on injured reserve, so this offensive line has been unable to open holes for David Johnson and Rex Burkhead.

There are a lot of questions regarding Houston’s defense heading into this game. The Texans rank 30th in scoring defense, total defense, and run defense, and they will be missing four starters in their back seven on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-11
  • ATS: 4-9
  • O/U: 2-11
  • ATS - Home: 2-5

The Urban Meyer tenure is finally over in Jacksonville. Meyer was fired earlier this week, putting an end to one of the most tumultuous first seasons we have seen in the modern NFL. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is the interim head coach.

No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been great as a rookie. Lawrence has really struggled since the bye week too, as he is only averaged more than 5.5 YPA in one of his last seven games. In this stretch, he has thrown two touchdown passes compared to six interceptions.

Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. have been Lawrence’s favorite targets this season. Neither player has been able to stretch the field too much though with Jones averaging 11.3 YPR and Shenault averaging 9.7 YPR.

James Robinson hasn’t had many touches recently. He is averaging 4.8 YPC, but Jacksonville has moved away from the ground game. Robinson carried the ball six times for four yards in last week’s loss to Tennessee.

This defense has not been good at stopping the pass. Jacksonville ranks 28th in passing defense and 30th in interception rate. The Jaguars have been much better at stopping the run, so they have a good chance of making the Texans one-dimensional.

Inside the Stats - Houston Texans

  • Record: 2-11
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 177
  • Points Allowed: 356
  • PS/G: 13.6 (32nd)
  • PA/G: 27.4 (30th)

Inside the Stats - Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Record: 2-11
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 180
  • Points Allowed: 340
  • PS/G: 13.8 (31st)
  • PA/G: 26.2 (26th)

Key Players to Watch

  • HOU: Davis Mills - QB (179/272, 1,737 yards, 8 TD, 8 INT)
  • HOU: Brandin Cooks - WR (73 catches, 845 yards, 3 TD)
  • JAC: Trevor Lawrence - QB (271/466, 2,735 yards, 9 TD, 14 INT)
  • JAC: James Robinson - RB (143 carries, 682 yards, 7 TD)

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Conclusion

It feels like this is a coin flip game. Some bettors might feel there is value in Jacksonville with Meyer gone, but the Jaguars are just as talent bare as the Texans. Lawrence’s recent play is not encouraging, so go with Houston as a moderate underdog.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends

  • Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight home games.
  • Houston has failed to cover the spread in four of its last six road games.
  • Jacksonville has gone UNDER the point total in eight straight games.
  • Houston has won seven straight games when facing Jacksonville.

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