New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions, Odds, Picks

Dec. 19, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

Week 15 NFL Picks & Predictions

Games Scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET

The New Orleans Saints (6-7) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3) square off in an NFC South showdown on Sunday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium in Week 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on NBC.

Score Prediction

Buccaneers 34, Saints 17

Best Bets

Buccaneers -11 (-110)

Buccaneers -6.5 (-105) first-half

Over 45.5 (-110)

Over 23.5 (-110) first half

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

The Saints picked up a 36-27 win over the Buccaneers in the first meeting in the Crescent City back in Week 8, improving to 5-2 SU. In that game, however, the Saints lost starting QB Jameis Winston to a season-ending knee injury. It's mostly been downhill for the Saints since, dropping five in a row after the victory before posting a 30-9 win at N.Y. Jets last Sunday as 4.5-point favorites.

That loss, coupled with a setback two weeks later in Washington, really served as a wake-up call for QB Tom Brady and the Bucs. Since Week 11, when the defending champs posted a 30-10 win over the New York Giants on Monday night, the Bucs have rattled off four consecutive wins and covers. And Tampa's offense has posted 30 or more points in each of the four outings, as they're rounding into championship form.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds

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New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC South
  • Date: Sunday, December 19, 2021
  • Venue: Raymond James Stadium
  • Location: Tampa, Florida
  • TV-Time: NBC - 8:20 p.m. ET

Week 15 NFL Picks & Predictions

Games Scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET through 4:25 p.m. ET

New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-7
  • ATS: 6-7
  • O/U: 6-7
  • ATS - Away: 4-3

The Saints picked up a cover on the road against the Jets last Sunday, but it was the first in four games overall. New Orleans has picked up covers in four of the past six games away from the Big Easy.

This is the first time New Orleans is a double-digit underdog since Sept. 27, 2015 at Carolina, a game which the Saints covered in a 27-22 loss as 10-point underdogs. Prior to that, the last time the Saints were a 10-point underdog was the "Beast Mode" playoff game in Seattle on Jan. 11, 2014, a 23-15 loss while covering a 10-point number. The last time the Saints failed to cover as a double-digit 'dog was Jan. 3, 2010 in Carolina, a 23-10 loss as 10-point underdogs.

The Saints have played well on a natural grass surface, at least in terms of the spread, going 13-5 ATS in the past 18 games on grass. They're also 25-10 ATS in the previous 35 outings as an underdog, and 19-7 ATS in the past 26 as a road 'dog. But, a majority of these games making up these trends were with QB Drew Brees at the helm, not the backup QBs Hill and Trevor Siemian.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-3
  • ATS: 7-6
  • O/U: 7-6
  • ATS - Home: 5-1

The Buccaneers have covered four consecutive outings, while covering five straight games at home, too. In addition, the Bucs have covered four of the past five games inside the division, although that lone non-cover was the first meeting with New Orleans this season.

The Bucs are rounding into form, and December has been a good month to them not only this season and last season, but over the previous few campaigns. Tampa Bay is 13-3-2 ATS in the past 18 games in the month of December.

In terms of the totals, the OVER has connected in 12 of the past 15 games inside the division, including 2-1 so far this season and 1-0 in the only previous divisional home game. The OVER is 12-4 in the past 16 games as a home favorite, too, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games following a straight-up win and 13-4 in the past 17 following a cover.

The Buccaneers have won and covered four consecutive games while scoring 30 or more points in each outing. (AP)

Inside the Stats - New Orleans Saints

  • Record: 6-7
  • Division Standing: 1-2
  • Points Scored: 304
  • Points Allowed: 285
  • PS/G: 23.4
  • PA/G: 21.9

Inside the Stats - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Record: 10-3
  • Division Standing: 2-1
  • Points Scored: 410
  • Points Allowed: 297
  • PS/G: 31.5
  • PA/G: 22.8

Key Players to Watch

  • NOR: Taysom Hill - QB (41/70, 773 total yards, 7 total TDs, 5 INT)
  • NOR: Alvin Kamara - RB (209 touches, 985 total yards, 8 total TDs)
  • TMB: Tom Brady - QB (378/554, 4,134 yards, 36 TD, 10 INT)
  • TMB: Chris Godwin - WR (92 catches, 1,054 yards, 5 TD)

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Conclusion

The Buccaneers are seeking revenge after blowing its first meeting against the Saints on Halloween Day as four-point favorites. The Bucs knocked Winston out of the game, and were taken by surprise as Siemian passed for 159 yards and a touchdown in relief. The defending champs won't be surprised again.

Tampa Bay has been playing better than anyone lately, and the offense has looked like a well-oiled machine with 30 or more points in four consecutive outings. Yes, New Orleans did look like a functional offense again last week, while shutting down the Jets, but again, it's the Jets. Playing a perennial cellar dweller and looking good, or playing the defending champs in their place in primetime are two different things. The Bucs are about to boat-race the Saints, making the Week 8 loss in the Big Easy a distant memory.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • The Saints are 25-10 ATS in the past 35 games as an underdog.
  • The Saints are 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against winning teams.
  • The Saints are 1-4 ATS in the past five games vs. NFC.
  • The Bucs are 4-0 ATS in the past four games overall.
  • The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in the past five divisional games.
  • The Bucs are 13-3-2 ATS in the past 18 games in December.
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight divisional games for the Saints.
  • The OVER is 12-3 in the past 15 divisional games for the Bucs.

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