Handicapping GOY Odds
May 27, 2015
By Brian Edwards
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[...] has posted lines for 20 Games of the Year and will be following up with a slew of others in the near future.
Let's take a look at some of the key ones that are already up on the board.
We start with a Week 2 showdown in East Lansing, where Michigan State will be in a revenge spot against Oregon. The global shop has tabbed the Spartans as three-point home favorites.
Mark Dantonio's team went into Eugene last year and had a nine-point lead midway through the third quarter. However, the Ducks rallied and then some to not only capture the win but also cover the double-digit number.
Connor Cook returns at QB for the Spartans, who bring back six starters on offense and seven on defense. Meanwhile, the Ducks have to replace Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, but they return weapons galore like RB Royce Freeman and versatile playmaker Byron Marshall. Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams is the favorite to win the QB job and he's a total stud.
In Week 3, Alabama is a 12-point home favorite vs. Ole Miss in a major revenge spot. The Rebels rallied in the fourth quarter to clip the Tide in Oxford last season, 23-17. The victory ended a 10-game winning streak 'Bama had over Hugh Freeze's program. Freeze is 2-1 ATS in three career games against Nick Saban's bunch.
Also in Week 3, LSU is a one-point home 'chalk' vs. Auburn. The Bayou Bengals will be looking to avenge a 41-7 loss to the War Eagles on The Plains from last year.
Moving ahead to Oct. 3, let's look at a crucial SEC showdown as Georgia hosts Alabama between the hedges in Athens. [...] has the Crimson Tide installed as a one-point road 'chalk.'
Both teams play cupcake non-conference foes the previous week, so there's no situational advantage for either squad. This will be the first meeting between these schools since Alabama beat UGA by a 32-28 count at the 2012 SEC Championship Game. This epic contest was shamefully scarred by Mark Richt's incompetent decision not to spike the ball with 15 seconds remaining after a big pass from Aaron Murray set the Dawgs up in the red zone.
The Red River Rivalry will resume the following week (10/10) with Oklahoma taking on Texas. [...] currently has the Sooners favored by five (all of these game have double juice of -120 both ways).
OU has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, but it failed to cover the number in last year's 31-26 victory.
On Oct. 17, Dantonio will square off against new Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh for the first time. [...] has the Spartans as 3.5-point road favorites. The Wolverines have lost six of the last seven to Michigan St. in this rivalry, including a 35-11 setback in East Lansing last year.
In a Week 9 game on a Thursday night, Arizona State will welcome Oregon to Tempe. [...] has the Ducks favored by 1.5 points. The Sun Devils haven't played Oregon since 2012 and will be trying to break an eight-game losing streak in the series.
In Week 10 and 11, Alabama faces a pair of tough division contests. The Tide is a 9.5-point home favorite vs. LSU and is then favored by four at Mississippi State seven days later. On May 26, [...] had 'Bama at -3 vs. the Bulldogs. I immediately tweeted that it was a bad number that should be at least six. Twenty-four hours later, the global book had moved the number to four and you can expect a further adjustment soon.
On Saturday Nov. 21, there are four games on the board:
Ohio State -5.5 vs. Michigan State
TCU -1 at Oklahoma
Oregon -5 vs. USC
le Miss -5 vs. LSU
On Friday of Rivalry Week (11/27), TCU is a 5.5-point home 'chalk' vs. Baylor. The Bears handed the Horned Frogs their only loss of 2014 by rallying from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit in Waco.
On Saturday Nov. 28, the spreads for rivalry games include:
Florida State -2 at Florida
Ohio State -9.5 at Michigan
USC -3 vs. UCLA
Alabama -2 at Auburn
Mississippi St. -2.5 vs. Ole Miss
Odds Subject to Change - Updated 5.27.15
3-0 Sat. 10-2 Run, 15-5 Totals TY
7-2 Saturday, 14-5 L2 Saturdays
4-2 Sat, 14-5 GPlays, 20-4 Totals TY
8-2 L10 G-Plays, 28-14 Pick Run
28-9 L7 Sat., 29-9 Totals, 32-11 TY
8-4 L2 Saturdays, 9-3 Totals TY