Last Updated Jan 17, 2023, 5:18 AM

Military Bowl Betting 2023 Odds, Predictions, Preview

The Duke Blue Devils defeated the UCF Knights 30-13 in the 2022 Military Bowl.

Check out last year's coverage here below and tune back in with us soon for the 2023 Military Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions.

The Duke Blue Devils have made a bowl game for the first time since 2018 in their first season under new head coach Mike Elko. Duke was expected to be a bottomfeeder once more in the ACC, but Elko was able to lead the team to an 8-4 record. The Blue Devils are now looking to end their season on a high note with a win over the UCF Knights in the Military Bowl.

The Military Bowl Presented by Peraton will take place on Wednesday, December 28, 2022, at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland.

Central Florida Knights vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Prediction

If these teams were both at full strength, UCF would be favored by the college football betting odds. However, the Knights may have to use third-string quarterback Thomas Castellanos as John Rhys Plumlee is dealing with a few injuries and Mikey Keene entered the transfer portal.

That will really limit Gus Malzahn’s offense and should give Elko his first bowl victory as a head coach. Don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game if Castellanos does start, so the Under is likely to be the best play.

Score Prediction: Duke 27, UCF 20
Best Bet:
Under 62.5 (-110)

Central Florida Knights vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Odds

Military Bowl Betting Resources

  • Date: Wednesday, December 28, 2022
  • TV-Time: ESPN, 2:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Memorial Stadium
  • Location: Annapolis, Maryland
  • Expert Picks

Central Florida Knights Betting Analysis

John Rhys Plumlee was the starting quarterback for UCF this season after transferring in from Ole Miss. Plumlee was one of the most dangerous dual-threat options in the country, leading the Knights with over 2,400 passing yards and more than 840 rushing yards with 25 total touchdowns.

Unfortunately, he has been dealing with a tricky hamstring injury, and he also missed time with a strained shoulder and a concussion earlier in the year. That could lead to freshman Thomas Castellanos receiving his first collegiate start.

Castellanos is a solid runner, but he has not looked sharp as a passer. The freshman had a nice performance against outmatched Temple in garbage time, yet we saw the real Castellanos in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane. He went 2-8 for seven yards and was sacked twice by the Green Wave. Top receiver Ryan O’Keefe won’t take part in this game either after entering the transfer portal, hurting UCF’s big play ability.

Isaiah Boswer and R.J. Harvey will be the go-to backs in this game. Bowser has been the short yardage back, running for 760 yards (3.9 YPC) with 14 touchdowns, while Harvey is the more explosive option with 767 yards (6.8 YPC) and five touchdowns.

UCF ranked 41st in Defensive SP+ this season. The Knights won’t have starting linebacker Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste in this game as he is entering the transfer portal, and top cornerback Davonte Brown will be absent as well. This defense doesn’t create a lot of havoc plays with UCF ranking outside the top 100 nationally in both sack rate and interception rate.

The Duke Blue Devils closed the regular season on a 4-1 run, both SU and ATS. (Getty)

Duke Blue Devils Betting Analysis

Whereas UCF will be without some real important players, Duke returns almost everyone of importance for the Military Bowl. Riley Leonard was a sharp dual-threat quarterback, completing 63.6% of his passes for 2,794 yards (7.7 YPA) with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Leonard is also the Blue Devils’ leading rusher with 636 yards (5.6 YPC) and 11 touchdowns.

Wide receivers Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore are the two players to watch in the passing game. Calhoun caught 56 passes for 811 yards and four touchdowns this year, while Moore hauled in 57 passes for 643 yards and five TDs. Sahmir Hagans is coming off a strong outing against Wake Forest in the season finale with eight receptions for 139 yards and two TDs. Jaquez Moore has been the most explosive running back (6.9 YPC), but Jordan Waters and Jaylen Coleman saw more carries.

Duke ranked 48th in Defensive SP+ on the year. The Blue Devils allowed just 23.1 PPG (32nd nationally), and they were excellent at stopping the run. Opponents averaged a scant 3.5 YPC against this front seven, so that does not bode well for run-heavy UCF. DeWayne Carter was fantastic up front with 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles, and he was tied for the team lead in sacks with defensive back Brandon Johnson.

Military Bowl History

Military Bowl Logo

The Military Bowl began in 2008, and the matchup currently features schools from the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and the American Athletic Conference (AAC). The game takes place at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium from Annapolis, Maryland. This game was previously called the EagleBank Bowl and Northrop Grumman Bowl. 

North Carolina blasted Temple 55-13 in the 2019 installment, and the 'over' easily connected for bettors. Including this outcome, favorites have gone 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the spread in this matchup.

The victory by the Tar Heels over the Owls helped the ACC improve to 3-4 in its first seven appearances in the Military Bowl.

The 2020 installment of the game was canceled due to a lack of available teams during the COVID-19 global pandemic. In 2021, the game was expected to return on Dec. 27, 2021, with East Carolina of the AAC facing Boston College of the ACC. However, that game was canceled due to B.C. not having enough players to participate due to COVID-19 issues.

YearMatchupSpread, TotalsATS Result
2022Blue Devils 30 UCF 13Duke -3, 63Favorite, Under
2019North Carolina 55 Temple 13North Carolina -6, 56.5Favorite, Over
2018Cincinnati 35 vs. Virginia Tech 31Cincinnati -4.5, 48,5Underdog, Over
2017Navy 49 vs. Virginia 7Navy -3, 49,5Favorite, Over
2016Wake Forest 34 Temple 26Temple -10.5, 41.5Underdog, Over
2015Navy 44 Pittsburgh 28Navy -3, 52.5Favorite, Over
2014Virginia Tech 33 Cincinnati 17Cincinnati -2, 50.5Underdog, Under
2013Marshall 31 Maryland 20Marshall -3, 65Favorite, Under
2012San Jose State 29 Bowling Green 20San Jose State -7.5, 46Favorite, Over
2011Toledo 42 Air Force 41Toledo -3, 69Underdog, Over
2010Maryland 51 East Carolina 20Maryland -7.5, 70Favorite, Over
2009UCLA 30 Temple 21UCLA -4, 44Favorite, Over
2008Wake Forest 29 Navy 19Wake Forest -3, 44Favorite, Over

For more coverage of bowl season, check out our College Football Bowl Central!

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