Boca Raton Bowl Betting 2023 Odds, Predictions, Preview

The Toledo Rockets defeated the Liberty Flames 21-19 in the 2022 Boca Raton Bowl.

Check out last year's coverage here below and tune back in with us soon for the 2023 Boca Raton Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions.

The Liberty Flames will be out to win their fourth straight bowl game on Tuesday night in south Florida.

However, for the first time in this stretch, the Flames will be without head coach Hugh Freeze as Freeze took the job at Auburn this offseason. That has played a part in the Flames being underdogs per the college football betting odds to the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday, December 20, 2022, at 7:30 p.m. ET from FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

Liberty Flames vs. Toledo Rockets Betting Prediction

A healthy Dequan Finn will make all the difference in leading the Toledo Rockets to a comfortable win over the Liberty Flames on Tuesday night.

Finn was one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the MAC before he suffered an ankle injury, and he has had a little over two weeks to rest and recover. Meanwhile, Liberty is in a little disarray with Freeze on the way out and several players headed to the transfer portal.

Score Prediction: Toledo 37 Liberty 21
Best Bet: Toledo -4

Liberty Flames vs. Toledo Rockets Betting Odds

Liberty Flames vs. Toledo Rockets Betting Resources

  • Date: Tuesday, December 20, 2022
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Venue: FAU Stadium
  • Location: Boca Raton, Florida
  • Expert Picks

Liberty Flames Betting Analysis

We saw Liberty fall apart over the last few weeks of the regular season. The Flames lost three straight games to close out the campaign and were hammered by 35 points by New Mexico State in their regular season finale.

Either Kaidon Salter or Johnathan Bennett will get the start under center. Salter seems to be the more likely option as a freshman, but the two split snaps over the last couple regular season games. Interceptions have been a problem for both signal callers too, so that is something to keep an eye on in this game.

Unfortunately for the Flames, they won’t have their best running back either. Dae Dae Hunter went down for the season with a torn knee ligament in Liberty’s upset victory over Arkansas, and the ground game has not been as explosive since that point. While Hunter averaged 6.6 YPC, Sherdo Louis is averaging just 4.3 YPC. Demario Douglas is by far the top receiver in this offense with 73 receptions for 977 yards and six touchdowns.

Liberty is ranked 58th in Defensive SP+. However, the depth at defensive line is a concern after three backups decided to enter the transfer portal. Additionally, top linebacker Ahmad Walker decided to move on from Lynchburg, so the Flames could have a hard time against the run on Tuesday night.

Liberty will be entering Tuesday's bowl matchup on a three-game losing skid. (Getty)

Toledo Rockets Betting Analysis

When Dequan Finn was healthy, Toledo had one of the most dangerous offenses in the MAC. Finn turned a lot of heads with his play against Ohio State in mid-September, and he threw for six touchdowns in a beatdown of Kent State in mid-October. Toledo blew out each of its first three conference opponents, but then Finn hurt his ankle in a loss to Buffalo. Neither Finn nor the offense was the same from that point forward, yet he was good enough to lead Toledo to a MAC Championship. Finn looks to be the healthiest he has been in two months, and that makes Toledo’s offense scary considering his dual-threat ability.

Jerjuan Newton is a real threat in the passing game once more with Finn’s return, and he leads the Rockets with 48 receptions for 788 yards and nine touchdowns. Devin Maddox can stretch the field while averaging 14.1 YPR, while tight end Jamal Turner has eight touchdown receptions and must be accounted for in the red zone. Jacquez Stuart is the big threat in the ground game alongside Finn, averaging 5.9 YPC.

The Rockets are ranked 61st in Defensive SP+. They are allowing just 4.8 yards per play, and the secondary is conceding a scant 6.1 YPA and 195.3 YPG through the air. Four players from Toledo’s defense were named First Team All-MAC. Defensive tackle Desjuan Johnson had 5.5 sacks and was a constant disruptor, linebacker Dallas Gant led the Rockets with 112 tackles, and Quinyon Mitchell and Maxen Hook were both excellent defensive playmakers in the secondary.

Boca Raton Bowl Best Bets

Boca Raton Bowl History

The Boca Raton bowl began in 2014, and the matchup has conference tie-ins with Conference USA, the American Athletic Conference (AAC), the Mid-American Conference (MAC), the Mountain West Conference, and the Sun Belt. The game takes place at FAU Stadium from Boca Raton, Florida.

Marshall captured the inaugural Boca Raton Bowl with a 52-23 victory against Northern Illinois. The MAC rebounded in the 2015 installment, as Toledo knocked off Temple 32-17 in a game that was marred with poor weather in the Sunshine State. The 'under' cashed in each of the first two Boca Raton bowls before the 'over' barely hit in the 2016 victory by Western Kentucky over Memphis.

UAB posted a wire-to-wire 37-13 victory over Northern Illinois in the 2018 installment. The Blazers cashed as short favorites (-1.5), marking the fourth chalk to cash in five Boca Raton Bowls.

However, the underdog struck back in 2019 as host school Florida Atlantic cruised past SMU 52-28 to capture the Boca Raton Bowl for the second time in three seasons, with the Owls winning outright as seven-point 'dogs.

The 2020 version of the game saw a ranked BYU team pick up a 49-23 blowout win over UCF, which made the short trip down Florida's Turnpike to Boca and had a large advantage in crowd support. It didn't matter, as the favorite cashed for the fourth time in five Boca Bowls.

In 2021, it was another blowout, this time in favor of the Conference USA representative Western Kentucky. QB Bailey Zappe passed for 422 yards and six touchdowns, giving him 5,967 passing yards and 62 touchdowns on the season, both FBS records. More importantly, the 'over' connected for the third time in four Boca Bowls, with the favorite going 5-1 ATS across the past six installments.

Boca Raton Bowl Logo
YearMatchupLine, TotalATS Result
2022Toledo Rockets 21 Liberty Flames 19TOL -3.5, 51Underdog-Under
2021Western Kentucky 59 Appalachian State 38Western Kentucky -1, 68.5Favorite-Over
2020BYU 49 UCF 23 BYU -5, 80Favorite-Under
2019Florida Atlantic 52 SMU 28 SMU -7, 63.5Underdog-Over
2018UAB 37 Northern Illinois 13 UAB -1.5, 41.5Favorite-Over
2017Florida Atlantic 50 Akron 3 Florida Atlantic -23.5, 63.5Favorite-Under
2016Western Kentucky 51 Memphis 31 Western Kentucky -7, 78.5Favorite-Over
2015Toledo 32 Temple 17Temple -2.5, 50Underdog-Under
2014Marshall 52 Northern Illinois 23Marshall -8.5, 67.5Favorite-Under

For more coverage of bowl season, check out our College Football Bowl Central!